It has been a full year since Bangladesh was shaken by one of the bloodiest uprisings in its modern history, a political earthquake that reshaped its governance, international standing, and civil society. But instead of healing, the country appears trapped in a worsening spiral of political instability, institutional erosion, and power vacuum at the top.

The 2024 uprising — sparked by allegations of electoral fraud, state violence, and systemic repression under the long-serving Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina — led to mass protests, armed street clashes, and an eventual collapse of central political authority in several key regions, especially Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet.

Today, Sheikh Hasina lives in exile in India, and is being tried in absentia by a transitional tribunal for crimes against humanity, including ordering extrajudicial killings, mass detentions, and suppression of dissent during the final days of her regime.

The aftermath of the 2024 uprising

The uprising that began in July 2024 as peaceful protests by student unions and opposition workers, quickly escalated into violent nationwide confrontations when security forces opened fire on unarmed demonstrators in Dhaka, killing over 120 people in a single day. Within weeks, cities turned into battlegrounds, as opposition groups, defecting army units, and militant activists overran key government buildings.

By August 2024, Sheikh Hasina fled the country. A loose coalition of opposition leaders, civil rights groups, and military officers formed a transitional authority, though their legitimacy continues to be questioned both domestically and abroad.

Today, hundreds of civilians, journalists, and political activists remain unaccounted for, as international human rights organisations push for an independent inquiry. Bangladesh’s internal wounds are deep, and efforts at reconciliation have been minimal.

Sheikh Hasina: From Prime Minister to fugitive

Sheikh Hasina, once hailed as the iron lady of South Asia, finds herself a political pariah. Her nearly two-decade rule, marked by rapid economic development but also authoritarianism, media clampdowns, and suppression of opposition, ended in chaos.

Now residing in India under undisclosed security arrangements, she has become the central figure in a trial at Bangladesh's newly formed War Crimes and Justice Tribunal, which has accused her of:

• Sanctioning violent crackdowns on civilian protestors

• Running secret detention and torture centres

• Manipulating judiciary and electoral bodies

Though India has not officially commented on her legal status, reports suggest she is being protected as part of a diplomatic negotiation to avoid further destabilisation in the region.

This arrangement, however, has also strained India's relations with Bangladesh's current interim leadership, who are demanding her extradition.

Current state of Bangladesh

The current Transitional National Council, a hybrid structure of former opposition parties, military technocrats, and bureaucrats, has struggled to govern effectively. While it has gained some international support, especially from Western democracies, it is plagued by internal factionalism and lack of a clear long-term mandate.

Key challenges include:

• Economic slowdown and investor flight

• Mass unemployment and rising food inflation

• Surging refugee movements along the India-Bangladesh border

• Ethnic and religious tensions re-emerging in the southeast hill districts

The law and order situation remains fragile, with splinter militant groups and former Hasina loyalists launching sporadic attacks on security forces and minority communities.

A recent UN report noted that Bangladesh “is at risk of descending into a protracted crisis unless a credible path to democratic restoration and accountability is urgently established.”

Regional and global reactions

The political turmoil in Bangladesh has prompted divergent responses from global powers:

• India, while sheltering Hasina, has maintained a largely neutral official position, though security along the border has been tightened.

• China has called for “stability and restoration of order” but continues infrastructure investments.

• The US, UK, and EU have backed the transitional regime but insisted on free and fair elections within a fixed timeframe.

Meanwhile, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and various human rights watchdogs have called for impartial investigations into human rights violations committed by all sides.

Trial and justice process

The trial of Sheikh Hasina, though symbolic for many, has also triggered concerns over due process and judicial fairness, particularly because it is being conducted by a still-fragile legal system in a volatile country.

The tribunal has so far heard testimonies from survivors, former government insiders, and whistleblowers, painting a grim picture of systemic abuse, media blackouts, and a culture of impunity under the previous regime.

If convicted, she may face life imprisonment or even capital punishment, though the practicality of such a sentence while she remains under India’s de facto protection remains doubtful.

Legal experts fear that without international oversight, the process may be perceived as political revenge rather than genuine justice.

Looking ahead: A fragile future

For millions of Bangladeshis, daily life remains precarious, with frequent electricity shortages, crumbling infrastructure, and widespread joblessness. Yet there is also a sense of political awakening, especially among the youth, who played a central role in the 2024 protests.

Civil society organisations are demanding:

• An internationally supervised election by end-2025

• A truth and reconciliation commission

• Protections for minorities and press freedom

• Clear timeline for return to constitutional democracy

The transitional government, however, has yet to commit to any definitive electoral roadmap, citing instability and legal reforms that are still in progress.

Conclusion

One year after the blood-soaked uprising of 2024, Bangladesh remains a nation in limbo — caught between past authoritarianism and uncertain democratic hopes. Sheikh Hasina’s trial may mark an inflection point in the country’s political evolution, but without structural reforms, inclusive dialogue, and credible elections, Bangladesh’s road to stability appears long and treacherous.

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