Asteroid 99942 Apophis, often referred to as the "God of Chaos," has been a focal point of concern since its discovery in 2004. Initially, the asteroid, which is about 1,100 feet (335 meters) wide, was considered a significant threat due to its potential to impact Earth. The primary concern was a possible collision during its close approaches in 2029 and 2036. However, recent analyses have dramatically shifted this assessment.

According to NASA and its Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), which manages asteroid tracking and risk assessment, Apophis now poses no risk of impacting Earth for at least the next century. The initial fears surrounding the asteroid were due to its proximity to Earth and the uncertainties in its orbital path. However, extensive tracking and radar observations have significantly refined our understanding of its trajectory.

In March 2021, a radar observation campaign using the 70-meter radio antenna at the Goldstone Deep Space Communications Complex provided high-precision data about Apophis. This campaign revealed that the asteroid's orbit is well-understood, and the previously feared close approaches in 2029 and 2036 no longer present any risk of collision. NASA’s calculations have eliminated the possibility of impact in 2068 and beyond, with certainty.

Paul Wiegert, a Canadian scientist, recently revisited the potential risks associated with Apophis. His research has sparked renewed discussions about the asteroid’s future path. Wiegert found that while Apophis will pass close to Earth, its trajectory could be altered if it collides with a smaller object in space. He estimated that the likelihood of such an event is about one in two billion. Even in the case of a slight trajectory shift, the probability of Apophis being directed toward Earth remains extremely low, at about 5 percent.

NASA's Davide Farnocchia emphasized that improved knowledge of Apophis’s position has greatly reduced uncertainties. "With the support of recent optical observations and additional radar observations, the uncertainty in Apophis’ orbit has collapsed from hundreds of kilometers to just a handful of kilometers when projected to 2029," he noted. This improved accuracy allows NASA to confidently remove Apophis from the risk list.

In summary, while Apophis will continue to be monitored closely due to its close approaches, current data and advanced tracking technology reassure us that there is no imminent threat of collision. The asteroid's future trajectory remains a subject of scientific interest, but the immediate risk has been effectively ruled out.

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