With the Election Commission of India (ECI) set to announce the schedule for the upcoming Bihar Assembly Elections 2025, the spotlight once again shifts to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and its leadership puzzle. Despite the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerging as the numerically stronger partner in Bihar politics, the alliance continues to rely on Janata Dal-United (JD-U) leader Nitish Kumar as its chief ministerial face.

The reluctance stems not from the absence of BJP’s electoral strength but from the unique caste arithmetic of Bihar, where Nitish retains influence among key voter groups critical for NDA’s survival.

The Caste Arithmetic That Shapes Bihar

Bihar’s politics is inextricably linked to caste. According to available data:

• Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) – 36% of population

• Other Backward Classes (OBCs, including Yadavs) – 27.12%

• Dalits – 19.65%

• Kurmis (Nitish’s caste) – 2.87%

• Upper Castes – 15.52%

• Muslims – 17.7%

While the Yadavs continue to form the backbone of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the non-Yadav OBCs, EBCs, Dalits, and women voters form Nitish Kumar’s enduring support base. Analysts argue that this “silent but solid non-vocal vote bank” has kept Nitish politically relevant despite JD-U’s declining vote share, which dropped to 15.39% in 2020.

Political analyst Adarsh Pandit notes:

“Non-vocal supporters, be it EBCs, women, or Dalits, have remained loyal to Nitish. This is why the BJP cannot afford to project another face just yet.”

Nitish Kumar’s Stability Factor

Since 2005, Bihar’s political narrative has revolved around Nitish Kumar. Except for a brief interruption in 2014, Nitish has remained at the helm, earning a reputation for stability and governance credibility.

Even though frequent political shifts have led to his critics labeling him an opportunist, Nitish remains the most recognizable political figure across Bihar’s villages, blocks, and panchayats—an advantage that BJP leaders lack.

“His credibility has been dented but is still far ahead of competitors,” Pandit observes, adding that NDA’s voter bases are naturally aligned, making Nitish the safest bet for BJP.

BJP’s Leadership Vacuum in Bihar

One of the BJP’s biggest hurdles in Bihar is its inability to project a homegrown chief ministerial face. Unlike Uttar Pradesh or Madhya Pradesh, where the party has established powerful leaders, Bihar remains an exception in the Hindi heartland.

The demise of Sushil Kumar Modi in May 2024 deepened the crisis, as he was considered the BJP’s tallest leader in Bihar. Currently, the BJP lacks a figure capable of matching Nitish Kumar’s 15–16% core vote base appeal.

“To replace Nitish, the BJP would need a leader charismatic enough to secure at least 16% of votes independently. That leader does not exist in Bihar BJP right now,” Pandit stresses.

BJP’s Stand on Nitish

Bihar BJP MLA Devesh Kant Singh highlighted that it was Atal Bihari Vajpayee who first endorsed Nitish as NDA’s leader in Bihar, a tradition that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reaffirmed.

Singh said:

“Despite BJP having more MLAs in 2020, Nitish was made CM. The same promise stands for 2025. NDA’s campaign banners read, Do Hazar Pachees, Fir Se Nitish.”

The NDA’s unity under Nitish was showcased through joint rallies with BJP, JD-U, Lok Janshakti Party, Upendra Kushwaha, and Jitan Ram Manjhi.

NDA’s Electoral Journey in Bihar

• 2005 Elections: JD-U (88 seats, 20.46%), BJP (55 seats, 15.65%). RJD reduced to 54 seats.

• 2010 Elections: NDA peaked with JD-U (115 seats, 22.58%) and BJP (91 seats, 16.49%). RJD slumped to 22 seats.

• 2015 Elections: JD-U allied with RJD and Congress, defeating BJP. JD-U (71 seats, 16.8%), RJD (80 seats, 18.4%). BJP won only 53 seats (24.4%).

• 2020 Elections: JD-U rejoined NDA. BJP won 74 seats (19.46%), JD-U fell to 43 seats (15.39%), while RJD emerged single-largest with 75 seats (23.11%) but failed to form government.

Conclusion

As Bihar heads into the 2025 Assembly elections, the BJP-JD-U alliance remains central to the NDA’s strategy. Despite being numerically stronger, the BJP’s leadership vacuum and Nitish’s hold over EBCs, non-Yadav OBCs, Dalits, and women ensure that the saffron party continues to depend on Nitish Kumar as its chief ministerial face.

While BJP’s long-term ambition is to cultivate a charismatic local leader, for now, Nitish Kumar remains the glue holding the NDA together in Bihar’s volatile caste-driven politics.

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