The upcoming Palakkad bypoll in Kerala has turned into a fascinating political battle, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) hoping to break its historical barriers in the state. Having only once held a MLA seat in Kerala, the BJP is now eyeing the Palakkad seat with a blend of urban support, strategic campaigning in the panchayats, and a shift in voter sentiment, especially among Christians.

BJP’s Strength in Palakkad: Urban Areas and Historical Momentum

Palakkad, a constituency made up of a municipality and three panchayats, has always been a stronghold for the Left parties, particularly the CPI(M). However, the BJP has made significant strides in the urban areas of the municipality, where it holds power and has gained a solid footing in recent elections. The party is further bolstered by a successful performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where it achieved its best-ever vote share and topped in 11 assembly constituencies.

Despite being in the second position in the last two assembly elections (2016 and 2021), the BJP is in a prime position to win this bypoll, especially with a narrow defeat margin of 3,859 votes in 2021 when E Sreedharan was the party candidate. This performance is being seen as a sign that the BJP could clinch the seat in Palakkad, particularly with C Krishnakumar as its candidate. Having contested previously in the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Krishnakumar’s familiarity with the constituency and his councillor experience in the city might give him an edge. However, his lack of charisma has raised concerns within the party ranks, with some fearing voter fatigue with his repeated candidacies.

The Panchayat Vote: A Key Battleground

While the BJP has made inroads in urban Palakkad, its success hinges on securing support in the rural panchayats, traditionally strongholds of the Left. In particular, Pirayiri, one of the panchayats, has a sizable Muslim population, typically aligned with the Congress. For the BJP to secure a win, it needs to maximize its urban vote share and tap into the discontent within the panchayats. The BJP has been focusing on rural areas, where discontent against both Congress and CPI(M) is growing. Rahul Mamkoothathil’s contentious nomination by the Congress, replacing the preferred candidate P Sarin, has caused unrest, which might benefit the BJP. Moreover, the CPI(M) is dealing with internal strife over Sarin’s candidacy as an independent, potentially weakening their base.

Waqf Board Issue: A Potential Game-Changer for Christian Voters

Another dynamic that could play a crucial role in the Palakkad bypoll is the ongoing Waqf Board dispute, which has stirred tensions in the state, particularly among Christian voters. Archbishop Raphael Thattil’s remarks urging the Christian community to vote differently, away from the usual parties, could shift voter sentiment toward the BJP, which has championed the cause of those opposing the Waqf Board’s claim over land. The Christian community’s reaction to this issue could tilt the balance in favor of the BJP, especially given the large Christian population in certain parts of Palakkad.

Congress and CPI(M) Struggles: BJP’s Opportunity

The Congress is facing internal rifts with the selection of Rahul Mamkoothathil as the candidate, opposed by party veterans like Shafi Parambil and V D Satheesan. This division could harm the party’s chances, particularly as some Congress members back the CPI(M), leading to potential cross-voting. On the other hand, the CPI(M) faces dissatisfaction within its ranks, particularly regarding Sarin’s independent candidacy. The party’s core supporters are not as motivated as before, and the lack of a clear party symbol for Sarin may dilute their campaigning efforts.

Anti-Incumbency Against Pinarayi Vijayan

The anti-incumbency sentiment against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan could also favor the BJP in this election. While Vijayan’s administration is not the central issue in Palakkad, the BJP is likely to capitalize on local discontent, particularly the lack of development in the constituency under Shafi Parambil's tenure. The BJP has been quick to point out its own contributions, such as the AMRUT scheme, the establishment of industrial parks, and the development of an IIT in the region.

Conclusion: BJP’s Historic Opportunity

With a mix of urban support, strategic campaigning in rural areas, potential shifts in Christian votes, and opposition parties facing internal issues, Palakkad presents a real opportunity for the BJP to make history. If the party secures the seat, it could mark a significant milestone for the BJP in Kerala, much like its earlier breakthrough in Thrissur.

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