Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) is standing at a crucial political crossroads as the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections approach, potentially shaping the party’s future in Mumbai. The BMC, which the Shiv Sena had governed continuously for 25 years between 1997 and 2022, has traditionally been the party’s stronghold. However, recent developments have cast a shadow over the Sena (UBT), creating a perfect storm of challenges.

Since the end of the last BMC term in March 2022, the civic body came under a state government administrator as political turmoil engulfed the Shiv Sena. The party split vertically, with 43 corporators from the erstwhile united Sena joining the faction led by Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, which holds the official rights to the Shiv Sena name and election symbol.

Among the prominent defectors are key corporators like Ameya Ghole, Samadhan Sarvankar, Sheetal Mhatre, Yashvant Jadhav, Raju Pednekar, Suvarna Karanje, and Snehal Shinde. This mass desertion has left Uddhav Thackeray’s faction severely weakened at the grassroots, stripping it of vital organisational strength in Mumbai’s wards.

Mumbai University political analyst Dr Sanjay Patil points out the gravity of this loss: “Rebuilding the lost ground-level connection is the biggest hurdle now. Losing corporators is not just symbolic, it cripples the party’s infrastructure at the ward level. Without strong local roots, even charismatic leadership struggles to convert popularity into votes. Access to power is critical in civic politics, and many in Sena (UBT) are now considering switching sides to remain relevant.”

In the recent Maharashtra Assembly elections, Sena (UBT) also suffered losses, failing to retain any of its 10 MLAs from Mumbai seats. This electoral setback, combined with the erosion of local corporators, has hollowed out the party organisation. The impact is visible from the shakha pramukh level down to booth-level workers, many of whom feel uncertain and demoralised.

The Shiv Sena (UBT) is also grappling with alliance uncertainties. As part of the Mahayuti alliance, the party’s standing in the coalition has become unclear due to its internal splits and diminished influence in Mumbai. This has affected strategic planning and campaigning preparations for the upcoming BMC polls scheduled within the next four months, as per the Supreme Court’s directive.

Party insiders admit that the search for suitable replacements for defected corporators and local leaders has been difficult. The absence of a strong and organised cadre network is threatening the party’s traditional dominance in the resource-rich Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, a key power centre in Maharashtra politics.

In conclusion, the BMC elections represent a make-or-break moment for Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT). The party must urgently rebuild its grassroots connections, boost cadre morale, and resolve alliance issues to avoid losing Mumbai’s civic governance to rival factions and political opponents. Without swift and effective action, the “tottering” Sena may face further erosion of its historic base in India’s financial capital.

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