Amid escalating economic tensions between Canada and the United States, an unexpected idea is gaining traction north of the border — European Union membership. According to a recent poll, 44% of Canadians support joining the EU, surpassing the 34% who oppose the notion. Though still far from mainstream policy, this idea signals a growing public desire for new international alliances in a world increasingly shaped by geopolitical realignments.

This interest stems from deep discontent with US President Donald Trump's protectionist trade policies, which have caused economic strain and diplomatic friction between Ottawa and Washington. Canadians are now exploring alternate futures, with Europe emerging as a promising, if improbable, partner.

Legal Roadblocks: Is EU Membership Even Possible?

Under Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union, only "European states" can apply for EU membership. This would seem to exclude Canada outright, given its geographic location. However, this interpretation may not be as rigid as it appears.

Several scholars argue that "Europeanness" is not solely defined by geography, but by shared cultural, legal, and democratic values.

“Being European is more of a state of mind,” says Giselle Bosse, a professor at Maastricht University. She highlights Canada's commitment to welfare, governance, and institutional norms that closely mirror those of many EU nations.

Similarly, Frank Schimmelfennig, professor of European politics at ETH Zurich, claims that Canada aligns more with EU standards than some current membership candidates, such as Turkey or Georgia.

In essence, Canada checks many boxes required for EU candidacy — except location.

The Economic Reality Check

While the philosophical and political compatibility between Canada and the EU is strong, the economic implications of EU membership for Canada would be massive and potentially harmful.

One of the key conditions for EU membership is alignment with the EU’s customs and trade laws, which would require Canada to:

• Implement EU-wide tariffs

• Adopt EU regulations

• Establish a customs border with the United States, its largest trading partner

These shifts could cause significant disruption. Ian Bond, from the Centre for European Reform, warns that such changes could be "economically destructive" for Canada.

“The costs would outweigh the benefits,” Bond said, especially considering the depth of Canada-US trade integration.

Moreover, any new EU member must receive unanimous approval from all existing EU states. Some countries, such as France, might even hold referendums on the issue — where resistance from influential groups like French farmers could derail the process.

Canada’s Diplomatic Tilt Toward Europe

Regardless of full membership, Canada is deepening its engagement with the European Union.

Recently elected Prime Minister Mark Carney chose France as the

destination for his first official foreign visit, where he met with French President Emmanuel Macron. The two discussed expanding cooperation on defence, trade, and climate action.

In a symbolic gesture, Carney described Canada as “the most European of non-European countries.” While this may have been meant as flattery, some analysts caution it might undermine any real membership bid by positioning Canada as an outsider.

Fairness Concerns: What About Those Already in Line?

If Canada — a stable, wealthy democracy with little political baggage — were fast-tracked into the EU, what message would that send to countries like:

• Ukraine

• Moldova

• Georgia

• Turkey

• Several Western Balkan nations

These nations have been waiting years, even decades, to advance their membership bids, facing rigorous scrutiny on democracy, governance, and rule of law.

Bringing Canada into the fold while these countries remain stuck in limbo would raise serious fairness and credibility issues for the EU.

A Symbolic Desire, Not a Strategic Move

In the end, this idea of Canada joining the European Union is more about symbolism than feasibility. It reflects a desire to:

• Distance itself from an increasingly unpredictable U.S.

• Seek reliable allies in a fragmented world

• Reinforce values aligned with democracy, sustainability, and multilateralism

The more likely path for Canada is updating its Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with the EU. This would enhance economic cooperation without the burdens of full membership.

CETA already facilitates trade, investment, and regulatory harmonization between the two. An updated version could deepen those ties further — making Canada closer to Europe in function, if not in form.

The Takeaway: A Thought Experiment for a Changing World

The notion of Canada joining the European Union might remain a political fantasy, but it’s an idea that reflects a deeper transformation in global diplomacy.

It signals how traditional alliances — particularly Canada’s reliance on the U.S. — are being reevaluated. As geopolitical dynamics shift, countries like Canada are searching for new coalitions that better reflect their values and long-term interests.

For now, though, Canada’s European future will remain symbolic, not structural — a diplomatic flirtation, not a marriage.

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