The Union government’s announcement that it will include caste enumeration in the next decennial Census has set off a major political ripple across the nation—especially in Karnataka. Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, known for reviving a decade-old caste survey in the state, is treating this move as vindication of his long-standing demand and that of the Congress party.

He has gone as far as to claim credit for “forcing Prime Minister Narendra Modi” to embrace the very idea the BJP had opposed until recently, citing that it would divide Hindu society.

Siddaramaiah Hails Caste Census as Victory for Congress

Siddaramaiah, who previously spearheaded the Socio-Economic and Educational Survey during his earlier tenure in 2015, said that the Centre’s decision proves the relevance and importance of caste-based data. According to him, Rahul Gandhi’s persistent demand for such enumeration—implemented already by Congress governments in Karnataka and Telangana—has finally paid dividends.

He welcomed the Centre’s move wholeheartedly and labelled it as a “copycat act” of his government’s proactive social justice approach. His political rhetoric is that the BJP has been forced to shift stance to avoid alienation of its backward class vote base.

The Reality of Karnataka's Caste Survey: A Storm of Opposition

The ground reality in Karnataka, however, is far from unified or celebratory. The so-called “caste census” that Siddaramaiah is backing was actually a socio-economic survey conducted by the State Backward Classes Commission in 2015, under the leadership of H Kantharaju.

Despite spending over ₹165 crore on this mammoth exercise, the report was never made public during the Congress’s initial tenure. It was only revived and brought before the Cabinet in 2023, after Siddaramaiah returned to power. But this delayed implementation has drawn heavy fire.

Lingayats and Vokkaligas Protest Caste Report

The two dominant communities in Karnataka—Lingayats and Vokkaligas—have strongly opposed the findings of the report. Combined, they constitute nearly 40% of the Congress’s legislative strength, making their dissent politically consequential.

Deputy CM DK Shivakumar, a Vokkaliga himself, and Shamanur Shivashankarappa, a powerful Lingayat voice, have denounced the report as “flawed” and “unscientific.” Community leaders have also alleged that the report is riddled with “cooked-up numbers” and does not reflect ground realities.

For instance, Marasu Vokkaligas, a sub-sect of the Vokkaligas, were reportedly pegged at just 3,859 people, whereas community leaders claim lakhs live in just parts of Bengaluru South.

Allegations of Data Manipulation and Lack of Transparency

Adding fuel to the controversy is the lack of public awareness about the original enumeration. A former commission official claimed that 94% of the population was covered, but widespread denials from residents have led to suspicions.

Critics claim that the Jayaprakash Hegde committee, which was tasked in 2023 to refine the data, extrapolated figures based on the 2011 Census without conducting fresh surveys. Many argue that the reservation percentages were lazily altered without scientific validation.

Due to these tensions, the Siddaramaiah government has shelved the report, at least temporarily, to avoid community backlash.

The Centre’s Strategic Shift: Why BJP Changed Its Mind

Until recently, PM Modi and the BJP opposed caste census vehemently. The concern was that it would fracture the Hindu vote bank and embolden caste-based politics. However, several factors led to this change in stance.

After the BJP’s underwhelming performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, especially in Uttar Pradesh, alarm bells rang within the party. The RSS flagged Congress and Samajwadi Party's propaganda, alleging that BJP aimed to change the Constitution and revoke reservations.

RSS’s Role and Closed-Door Meetings

Interestingly, before the Centre’s announcement, Modi met RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat for over two hours in New Delhi, following a visit to Nagpur headquarters. These high-level discussions were believed to be pivotal in recalibrating BJP’s social justice strategy.

By incorporating caste enumeration into the official Census, the Centre ensures uniformity, credibility, and national scale—avoiding the kind of political blowback faced by Karnataka.

Upcoming Challenges and Political Calculations

The announcement of a national caste census is not just a move for data-driven policymaking. It has deep electoral undertones, especially with upcoming delimitation exercises for Lok Sabha and State Assemblies on the horizon.

The availability of fresh caste data will allow political parties to tweak constituency boundaries, reservation formulas, and candidate selection strategies. Simultaneously, the implementation of the Women’s Reservation Act is likely to overlap with these structural changes.

In short, the BJP is preparing multiple layers of social engineering to consolidate its voter base post-2024.

Congress vs BJP: The Battle for Social Justice Narrative

While Siddaramaiah accuses BJP of “imitating” Congress policies, BJP leaders argue that the move is a necessary course correction. The Congress, however, is unlikely to give up its narrative of being the original architect of caste census, attempting to capitalize on public dissatisfaction with the BJP’s initial resistance.

This political tug-of-war is also playing out on social media, where Congress is celebrating the Centre’s U-turn, while the BJP is focusing on “data accuracy” and “national interest” to justify the decision.

Conclusion: Caste Data Politics Far from Over

The caste census debate in India is more than just a statistical exercise. It is a high-stakes political gambit, where public perception, community leadership, electoral math, and ideological positioning all come into play.

In Karnataka, the Siddaramaiah government’s report remains mired in controversy, but the Centre’s official inclusion of caste enumeration may provide a face-saving exit for all parties.

However, with mutts, community leaders, and political parties preparing parallel surveys, the battle over caste numbers and their implications is far from over.

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