The fate of Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun is uncertain as US officials reported he is under investigation for corruption. According to a Financial Times report, the investigation is part of a broader anti-corruption crackdown within the People's Liberation Army (PLA), which has affected high-ranking military officers and executives in China's defence industry. The probe reportedly stems from an expansion of investigations originally focused on China's strategic rocket forces, which later encompassed other military and procurement issues.

One US official, speaking anonymously, indicated the importance of this investigation, noting that President Xi Jinping himself appointed Dong to the post in December 2023. However, another senior US official urged caution, suggesting that reports about Dong's investigation should be taken with care, without confirming its accuracy.

Dong's investigation could make him the third consecutive Chinese defence minister to be targeted by corruption probes. His immediate predecessors, Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe, were both expelled from the Communist Party for "serious violations of discipline," a euphemism for corruption. Dong, who had been serving as the PLA Navy chief prior to his appointment as Defence Minister, has been at the center of China's anti-corruption purge in the military, which has seen at least nine generals removed from office.

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The investigation surrounding Dong also follows a recent increase in military-to-military ties between China and the United States, with Dong overseeing a thaw in relations, including theatre-level commander talks in September 2024. However, Dong's diplomatic role has been questioned after he declined a meeting with US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin in Laos in early November 2024, citing US actions on Taiwan.

While Dong has not been appointed to China’s Central Military Commission (CMC)—the top military body—and was not included in the State Council reshuffle earlier this year, his investigation is yet another sign of the shifting power dynamics within China’s military leadership. Experts like Dennis Wilder, a former US intelligence analyst, believe that once the corruption investigation delves deeper, it could reveal more widespread issues within the PLA, as has happened in similar cases in the past.

The ongoing military purges in China have raised concerns about the political environment in the military, and have highlighted a pattern of corruption, with bribes and improper promotions among the allegations against former officials. Dong’s potential removal from office would not be unprecedented, and the Chinese government, in line with previous cases, may quickly move to appoint a successor, ensuring the continuity of military operations despite leadership changes.

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