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Donald Trump Returns to Power in 2024: Global Geopolitical Impacts and Challenges
Team Finance Saathi
20/Dec/2024
What's covered under the Article:
- Trump's unexpected victory in the 2024 election is set to reshape global geopolitics.
- The potential consequences of Trump's policies on Ukraine, Russia, and NATO are explored.
- Trump's approach to the Middle East and China promises significant shifts in global alliances.
In the 2024 elections, a wave of change swept across the globe, with major elections held in India, the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, Pakistan, and 59 other nations. However, the most consequential election result came from the United States, where 77.2 million citizens voted, pushing Donald Trump back into a position of power despite his absence from the presidential race. This outcome sent shockwaves through global politics, and many observers have wondered what the implications will be for the world.
Trump's return to power comes as a shock to many, especially considering the highly competitive nature of his campaign against Kamala Harris, who was the incumbent Vice-President under President Joe Biden. While Biden himself did not contest the election, Harris emerged as the main Democratic contender and a fierce challenger to Trump. Despite the hard-fought campaign, Trump clinched the victory, signaling a significant shift in the balance of power in Washington and across the world. This victory is particularly significant as it allows Trump the opportunity to influence not only US domestic policy but also reshape global geopolitics.
Trump and the War in Ukraine
A significant area where Trump’s return to power will have an immediate impact is the war in Ukraine. Trump has long been critical of the ongoing conflict and has expressed his intent to bring about an end to the war, likely by forcing both Kyiv and Moscow into a ceasefire agreement. It is anticipated that Trump would push for a permanent settlement that could involve recognizing Russia's territorial gains, including the annexation of Crimea and other regions that were occupied after Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. Additionally, Trump could yield to demands from Russian President Vladimir Putin, such as preventing Ukraine’s membership in NATO, which could potentially shift the dynamics in Eastern Europe. Trump's approach may also undermine NATO's cohesion, as he has been vocal about his previous disdain for the alliance, often threatening to withdraw support for European members unless they agree to specific terms.
Trump’s Middle East Policies: A Stronger Support for Israel
Trump’s stance on the Middle East will also be a major focal point of his presidency. Historically, Trump has been a staunch ally of both Israel and Saudi Arabia, and this is expected to intensify in his second term. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, is likely to gain significant backing from Trump, particularly as he continues his offensive against Iran and its proxies, such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis in Yemen. Trump’s support for Netanyahu may embolden the Israeli government to take even more aggressive action in the region, particularly against Iran, which has been a major actor in supporting Russian interests in Ukraine.
Moreover, Trump’s foreign policy could lead to a widening of the Middle East conflict, as Netanyahu looks to strengthen Israel’s regional position. Trump, meanwhile, may find himself in a delicate balancing act, using his relationship with Netanyahu as leverage in his negotiations with Putin over the Ukraine conflict. In this complex geopolitical environment, the Middle East could become even more unstable, with Trump’s policies likely adding fuel to the fire.
Trump and China: Continuity or Change?
While US-China relations will continue to dominate global politics during Trump’s second term, many observers believe that these relations will follow a path of continuity rather than radical change. During his first term, Trump adopted tough policies against China, including import tariffs and a confrontational stance over issues like intellectual property and trade imbalances. These policies are likely to continue, with Trump seeking to maintain pressure on China while simultaneously exploring potential pragmatic solutions to the trade and technological challenges posed by the rising economic power.
Trump’s approach to Taiwan, a critical flashpoint in US-China relations, remains uncertain. He may continue his mixed approach, offering some support to the island while also keeping the door open for negotiations with Chinese President Xi Jinping. However, Trump’s unpredictability in foreign policy raises significant concerns about the future of US alliances in Asia, particularly with South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines. The Philippine-US alliance, for example, could be tested if Trump chooses to align more closely with China, leading to potential realignments in the region.
North Korea: Uncertainty Ahead
Trump’s relationship with North Korea has always been unpredictable. During his first term, his on-again, off-again meetings with Kim Jong-un were one of the most controversial aspects of his foreign policy. Given that North Korea has continued to develop its nuclear weapons program, the potential for conflict remains high. Trump’s willingness to push North Korea to the brink of war, as seen in 2017, could again become a reality, especially if tensions rise further in the region.
Trump may even entertain the possibility of a deal that involves North Korea becoming a nuclear power, with broader geopolitical ramifications. Such a move could be designed to create leverage against China, which has grown increasingly concerned about the deepening ties between North Korea and Russia. The risk of a nuclear-armed North Korea could increase the uncertainty in the region, potentially exacerbating tensions with China and South Korea.
Preparing for Trump's Return to the White House
As Trump’s return to power draws closer, both allies and adversaries are working to secure their positions. In Europe, NATO countries may prepare for potential shifts in US foreign policy, particularly in relation to Russia. Russia may seek to consolidate gains in Ukraine, emboldened by Trump's willingness to cut a deal with Putin. Iran, too, will be watching closely, as Trump's support for Israel could lead to a more aggressive stance in the region.
In the Middle East, Israel will be preparing for a continued offensive against Iranian-backed forces, and the Arab world may see tensions flare between those who support Israel’s actions and those who remain sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. Stability in the region will remain elusive, as long as the Palestinian issue remains unresolved.
In Asia, the US-China rivalry will likely escalate, with Taiwan becoming an even more critical point of contention. As Trump’s policies shape the future of the Indo-Pacific region, countries like Indonesia and India may reconsider their long-term alignment with the US, given the unpredictability of Trump’s foreign policy.
Global Uncertainty: What’s Next?
The global situation under Trump’s return to power is marked by uncertainty and potential instability. While Trump has promised to end wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, his unpredictable approach could lead to unforeseen consequences. Tensions in Asia may increase, with the US and China edging closer to a potential conflict. NATO could face fractures, and Russia may push further with its territorial ambitions in Europe.
As Trump prepares for his return to the White House, the world braces for the potential upheaval that his policies might bring. Only time will tell if he can truly navigate the complexities of global geopolitics or if his tenure will lead to the chaos that many fear.
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