In the wake of the deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, which claimed the lives of 26 civilians, tensions between India and Pakistan have sharply escalated, prompting immediate geopolitical and operational consequences. A key repercussion is the growing number of European airlines avoiding Pakistani airspace, citing heightened security risks and the closure of Pakistan’s air routes to Indian airlines.

The Pahalgam terror attack, one of the deadliest in recent years, was carried out by the Resistance Front (TRF), widely known as a proxy of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). On April 22, 2025, terrorists opened indiscriminate fire on civilians in the tourist-heavy region of Pahalgam. The attack has drawn chilling parallels with the Pulwama attack of 2019, both in its impact and the strategic responses it has triggered.

In response, the Indian Government has granted full operational freedom to the Armed Forces, allowing them to choose the mode, timing, and targets for retaliation. This has escalated cross-border military posturing and has raised concerns globally regarding airspace safety and conflict escalation.

Airspace Avoidance by Major Carriers

According to Flightradar24, a leading flight tracking platform, European airlines including Air France, British Airways, Swiss, Lufthansa, ITA Airways, and LOT Polish Airlines have started adjusting their flight paths to avoid Pakistani airspace. The flight rerouting follows NOTAMs (Notices to Airmen) issued by Pakistan, restricting the use of several key airways in its northern airspace throughout May 2025.

Even in the absence of formal airspace bans, airlines have proactively changed routes based on risk assessments. Flights like Bangkok-Munich, Frankfurt-Hyderabad, Munich-Delhi, and Frankfurt-Mumbai have rerouted to avoid Pakistani skies, adding up to an extra hour of flight time in some cases.

This self-imposed restriction is not unprecedented. Airlines globally tend to avoid airspaces deemed hostile or unstable, even without NOTAM enforcement. The Ukrainian conflict and the Middle East tensions have previously caused similar flight disruptions.

Pakistan’s Response and Airspace Restrictions

Amid the brewing conflict, Islamabad closed its airspace to Indian airlines, citing security and national sovereignty concerns. This has further complicated air connectivity between Europe and South Asia, particularly impacting international carriers using Indo-European corridors.

Pakistan’s decision follows a long-standing pattern in India-Pakistan relations where airspace becomes a strategic tool during periods of conflict. During the Balakot airstrikes in 2019, a similar closure lasted for months, causing widespread disruption to global carriers and costing airlines millions in fuel and rerouting charges.

Implications on Global Aviation and Security

The aviation sector is extremely sensitive to geopolitical tensions. The closure of Pakistani airspace and rerouting of flights come at a time when the global airline industry is still recovering from the shocks of post-pandemic disruptions and fuel price fluctuations. Additional flying hours mean increased fuel consumption, higher ticket prices, and strain on flight scheduling.

Furthermore, the rising tensions have placed South Asian airspace under intense scrutiny. Aviation security regulators across Europe and Asia are continuously monitoring the situation. Any major military retaliation by India could result in further NOTAMs, no-fly zones, and even blanket bans on overflight through certain high-risk regions.

Military and Diplomatic Developments

India’s top political leadership has reportedly cleared the decks for a strong retaliatory response, with decisions on execution being left entirely to military command. This implies that surgical strikes, drone operations, or targeted raids cannot be ruled out in the days to come.

Diplomatic channels between India and Pakistan remain suspended, with no official talks initiated post the Pahalgam tragedy. India continues to push its allies and global institutions to brand Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism, while Pakistan defends itself by denying involvement and blaming “non-state actors.”

Domestic Political Reactions

Within India, the Pahalgam incident has fueled significant political rhetoric, with parties urging for justice and decisive action. National security has returned to the centre of political discourse, especially with general elections on the horizon. The opposition has largely supported the government’s stance, though some voices have called for transparency in action and policy.

Air Travel Disruptions for Passengers

Travellers on Indo-European routes are likely to face longer flying durations, rescheduling, and even higher airfares as airlines rework their navigation plans. Passengers flying from Delhi, Mumbai, Hyderabad and other Indian metro cities to destinations in Europe such as London, Paris, Frankfurt, and Zurich may now see delays ranging from 45 to 90 minutes.

The situation remains fluid, with airlines advising passengers to check schedules regularly and remain updated on developments through official channels.

Future Outlook

If tensions continue to rise, it is plausible that more airlines could suspend operations over South Asian corridors, further straining the already limited air connectivity between India and Europe. Moreover, full-blown hostilities or military skirmishes would not only jeopardize aviation safety but could also lead to broader economic consequences, affecting trade, tourism, and cross-border cooperation.

Both international and domestic aviation authorities, including ICAO and DGCA, are closely monitoring the conflict. Global efforts to de-escalate the situation diplomatically have not yet shown significant progress.

Conclusion

As India and Pakistan once again find themselves locked in a dangerous standoff, the impact is being felt far beyond military and diplomatic realms. The aviation sector, often an early casualty of such tensions, is already experiencing disruptions with European airlines steering clear of Pakistani airspace. With the potential for military retaliation on the horizon, the world watches closely — not just for the next strategic move, but also for the implications it may have on global travel and stability in South Asia.

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