FMCG stocks rally led by ITC Nestle and HUL after RBI rate cut and CPI forecast

Team Finance Saathi

    09/Apr/2025

What's covered under the Article:

  1. FMCG sector sees strong buying with ITC, Nestle and HUL boosting the Nifty FMCG index by nearly 2 percent on April 9.

  2. Rate-sensitive stocks gain as RBI cuts repo rate by 25 bps to 6 percent and lowers CPI inflation forecast to 4 percent for FY26.

  3. Investors turn to defensive FMCG stocks amid global market volatility, trade war fears and inflation concerns.

On April 9, the FMCG sector stood out as a beacon of stability in an otherwise weak and volatile Indian stock market. Nifty FMCG index emerged as the top sectoral gainer, closing nearly 2 percent higher, driven by strong performances from heavyweight players such as ITC, Hindustan Unilever (HUL), and Nestle India.

The upward momentum in FMCG stocks comes at a time when broader indices have shown a lacklustre trend, affected by global uncertainties including an escalating trade war between the United States and China, coupled with recession fears.


Nestle and Godrej Consumer Lead the Charge

Among the top-performing stocks, Nestle India and Godrej Consumer Products led the rally, each gaining nearly 3 percent. Following closely were Emami, Colgate Palmolive, and Hindustan Unilever, reflecting broader optimism in the segment.

Other key FMCG players including Britannia Industries, Marico, United Spirits, Dabur, Tata Consumer Products, and ITC posted gains around 1 percent, adding strength to the sectoral movement.

Meanwhile, Varun Beverages and United Breweries also traded in the green, although their gains were marginal.


Patanjali Foods and Radico Khaitan Underperform

While the sector largely traded higher, not all stocks mirrored the bullish sentiment. Patanjali Foods and Radico Khaitan were the notable exceptions, both registering marginal declines and bucking the overall trend.

Despite these underperformers, the positive momentum across major FMCG names helped lift market sentiment and attracted fresh investor attention.


FMCG’s Defensive Appeal in Uncertain Times

What makes FMCG stocks an attractive bet is their defensive nature. These companies cater to essential goods and services, which means demand for their products tends to remain stable even during economic downturns.

Given the rising volatility in equity markets, investors are increasingly shifting focus to safe-haven sectors like FMCG. The global tension arising from U.S. President Trump's retaliatory tariffs, and its impact on global growth and trade, has also amplified recessionary fears.

These concerns make sectors like FMCG more favourable as they are less sensitive to external economic shocks and rely heavily on domestic consumption.


RBI Rate Cut and CPI Inflation Forecast Push Sentiment Higher

A significant factor boosting investor sentiment on April 9 was the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). In a welcome move, the RBI announced:

  • A 25 basis points cut in the repo rate, bringing it down to 6 percent, to support economic growth.

  • A downward revision in CPI inflation forecast, from 4.2 percent to 4 percent for FY26.

These measures are seen as pro-growth and have increased optimism around consumption-led sectors, particularly FMCG.


Expert Opinions Highlight FMCG’s Appeal

Narinder Wadhwa, MD & CEO of SKI Capital, highlighted how the rate cut could result in a weaker rupee, which although helpful for export sectors, may lead to imported inflation. This, in turn, makes defensive sectors like FMCG more appealing in times of continued market turbulence.

Meanwhile, Sankar Chakraborti, MD & CEO of Acuité Ratings & Research, praised the RBI’s proactive stance. He noted that the focus on supporting domestic drivers, especially MSMEs that might face tariff-related challenges, is a well-timed measure to maintain the momentum in consumption and investment.


Global Market Pressures Make FMCG a Safe Bet

With global trade disruptions and tariff wars continuing to escalate, sectors exposed to international markets may face unpredictable earnings. In contrast, FMCG players, with their domestic market orientation, offer relatively steady earnings visibility.

This has led institutional investors and retail investors alike to reallocate capital to FMCG names, especially those with strong brand equity, distribution networks, and consistent demand.


Conclusion: FMCG – The Go-To Sector in Stormy Markets

To summarise, the April 9 performance of the FMCG index reflects its resilience and importance in a diversified portfolio during times of macroeconomic instability. Backed by strong earnings visibility, favourable regulatory support, and growing domestic demand, FMCG stocks are emerging as prime investment options for both short-term stability and long-term value creation.

Investors should watch key developments in RBI policies, inflation metrics, and global trade relations, as these will continue to shape the outlook for FMCG and other defensive sectors in the months ahead.

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