Gold prices surged to an all-time high of ₹93,736 per 10 grams on Friday (April 11, 2025) on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), reflecting a sharp rally in global markets. The rally was driven by rising geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation concerns, and a significant weakening of the Indian rupee, which made imported gold more expensive in local currency terms.

In global markets, gold futures touched a record $3,240.20 per ounce, underlining strong investor demand for safe-haven assets in an environment filled with macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Expert Insights: Rahul Kalantri’s Strategic Outlook

According to Rahul Kalantri, Vice President of Commodities at Mehta Equities, gold remains in a long-term bullish zone, even though short-term market noise and volatility might create temporary pullbacks. He urges investors to adopt a disciplined and structured approach whether they are trading for the short term or investing for the long haul.

Strategy for Short-Term Investors

Kalantri emphasizes caution for short-term investors, recommending the use of protective stop losses and careful monitoring of support and resistance levels.

“Sharp reversals are possible,” he warned, “so it’s critical to protect profits and track key price movements.”

Key Levels for Short-Term Traders (MCX):

• Support levels: ₹87,240 and ₹85,550 per 10 grams

• Resistance levels: ₹90,000 and ₹91,440 per 10 grams

Key Levels in International Market:

• Support levels: $2,965 and $2,840 per ounce

• Resistance level: $3,150 per ounce

These levels act as technical boundaries that can determine whether the price continues its upward momentum or experiences a pullback. Investors are advised to stay updated with daily market data and be ready to adjust positions accordingly.

Strategy for Long-Term Investors

For long-term gold investors, Kalantri remains highly optimistic. He believes that any dips in prices should be seen as buying opportunities due to the strong fundamental support behind gold.

He cites the following drivers for long-term bullishness:

• Central bank gold accumulation

• Steady inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs)

• Heightened global uncertainty

• Continued rupee weakness

“Volatility will be there, but the long-term outlook remains positive,” Kalantri noted, urging investors to remain focused and patient.

Impact of the Rupee and Global Tensions

The rupee’s depreciation against the US dollar is a significant factor in elevating domestic gold prices. Since gold is globally traded in dollars, any fall in the rupee increases the cost of gold imports, thereby pushing MCX prices higher.

Additionally, rising geopolitical concerns, including potential escalations in conflict-prone regions and trade uncertainties, have led to an increased preference for safe-haven assets like gold. These factors, combined with fears of sticky inflation and uneven global growth, have enhanced gold’s appeal.

Global Market Dynamics Driving Gold Prices

The international market has been buzzing with activity as gold futures broke previous records to touch $3,240.20 per ounce. This surge has been triggered by:

• Escalating Middle East tensions

• Fear of a potential slowdown in global economic growth

• Ongoing monetary policy easing signals from central banks

• Surge in gold ETF investments

All of these dynamics have created a favorable backdrop for gold prices, and India, being the world’s second-largest consumer of gold, is directly influenced by these global price movements.

What Investors Should Watch Going Forward

Kalantri advises keeping an eye on the following market influencers in the coming weeks:

• Dollar index movements

• US Federal Reserve’s policy tone

• Rupee’s performance

• Geo-political flashpoints

• Demand from institutional buyers and ETFs

• Indian import trends and wedding season demand

Each of these elements could affect short-term volatility, but the overarching long-term fundamentals remain bullish.

Outlook on Gold Supply and Production

Interestingly, while demand is rising, there’s also an expected increase in mine production and recycled gold supply. However, this is not likely to dilute the rally in a significant way, according to analysts.

Supply-side improvements might cool off sharp spikes, but structural drivers like inflation, monetary easing, and reserve diversification by central banks will likely keep gold in strong demand.

Conclusion: Should You Invest in Gold Now?

With gold prices at record highs, many investors are wondering whether it’s still the right time to enter the market. Kalantri’s message is clear: Don’t panic buy, but also don’t sit idle.

For short-term traders, the focus should be on risk management, stop-loss mechanisms, and watching technical indicators closely.

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