Gold prices continued to hover near record highs on Friday, April 25, with investors leaning towards the precious metal as a safe haven amid mounting global uncertainties. Spot gold remained steady at $3,348 an ounce, while US gold futures edged up by 0.3% to $3,359.

The yellow metal recently touched an all-time high of $3,500.05 per ounce, reflecting a significant uptrend in 2025 as investors respond to geopolitical unrest, central bank rate expectations, and economic concerns.

In the Indian market, prices stayed elevated:

• ₹9,824 per gram for 24K

• ₹9,005 per gram for 22K

• ₹7,368 per gram for 18K

(As per Goodreturns, prices for 10 grams)

Key Drivers Behind Gold’s Rally

Gold has already surged by over $700 per ounce in 2025, marking a third straight weekly gain. This rally is supported by widespread macroeconomic instability, fragile equity markets, and evolving central bank policies globally.

Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG, remarked that while gold’s positioning may be crowded and due for a pause, investor confidence in gold as a hedge remains strong amid uncertainty.

Meanwhile, ongoing US-China trade tensions also contribute to market unease. Despite claims of progress from President Trump, China’s commerce ministry has demanded tariff rollbacks to move negotiations forward.

Geopolitical Tensions Add to Risk-Off Sentiment

Global tensions escalated this week following a deadly missile and drone attack by Russia on Kyiv, resulting in at least 12 fatalities. Trump’s condemnation of the attack further intensified the global focus on conflict-related risks.

Such geopolitical shocks reinforce the case for safe-haven assets like gold, particularly at a time when other asset classes appear volatile or overvalued.

US Rate Outlook Supports Gold Bulls

On the policy front, US Federal Reserve officials are not showing urgency to alter current rates, reinforcing expectations of up to 84 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it more attractive for investors.

Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities, noted that the rally gained further momentum due to:

• Higher US jobless claims

• Fresh stimulus signals from China

• Sustained demand for safe-haven investments

However, he also cautioned that a stronger dollar and optimism over trade tariffs could cap upside gains in the near term.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

Analysts suggest the following technical support and resistance levels for gold:

• In Dollar terms:

  • Support: $3,315–$3,288

  • Resistance: $3,375–$3,398

• In Rupee terms:

  • Support: ₹95,450–₹95,080

  • Resistance: ₹96,650–₹97,090

These levels will be crucial for short-term traders and could dictate the next phase of price movements depending on economic data and global developments.

Investment Outlook: Strategic Perspectives

Gold’s performance in recent years shows remarkable resilience and growth, with its price tripling over the past five years. This trend underscores the metal’s enduring appeal as a store of value and hedge against risk.

According to Prithviraj Kothari, MD of RiddiSiddhi Bullions:

"Gold touched an all-time high this week. The long-term outlook remains strong due to geopolitical tensions, currency weakness, and economic instability. However, investors needing liquidity may consider partial profit-booking."

This sentiment reflects a growing consensus that while gold remains a core asset for long-term portfolios, investors with short-term goals may consider rebalancing to secure gains and manage risks.

Gold in India: Local Trends and Consumer Impact

In India, the world's second-largest consumer of gold, prices have reached levels that may impact jewellery demand but continue to attract investors and institutions. The consistent rally is pushing more investors towards sovereign gold bonds (SGBs) and gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Additionally, the festive and wedding seasons could see a temporary dip in physical buying due to high prices, but investment demand is likely to remain robust.

Conclusion: Cautious Optimism for the Long Term

In summary, gold’s current trajectory is being driven by a potent mix of global instability, central bank policies, and investor risk aversion. While short-term corrections are possible due to technical resistance and external events, the underlying bullish trend appears intact.

Investors are advised to:

• Monitor central bank signals and geopolitical developments closely

• Watch technical levels for entry/exit points

• Consider gradual profit-booking to lock in gains

As long as uncertainty persists globally, gold is expected to remain a critical asset in diversified portfolios.

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