In a strong and fact-driven rebuttal, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has dismantled recent scare narratives on social media claiming that China could potentially block the Brahmaputra River, thereby harming India’s water security. This narrative, amplified by voices across the border in Pakistan, attempted to instil fear about India's strategic vulnerabilities regarding its water sources.

However, Sarma took to social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to counter the panic with science, statistics, and national clarity, explaining why such fears are baseless and misleading.

Myth vs. Reality: Understanding the Brahmaputra River System

The Brahmaputra River, known for its force and breadth, originates in Tibet (as Yarlung Tsangpo) and enters India through Arunachal Pradesh, flowing into Assam and then into Bangladesh. However, as per Sarma's detailed clarification, the bulk of the Brahmaputra’s water volume comes from India itself, not China.

According to the Chief Minister:

• Only 30–35% of Brahmaputra’s water flow originates from Chinese territory, contributed through glacial melts and limited Tibetan rainfall.

• The remaining 65–70% is added within India through:

  • Heavy monsoonal rainfall across Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, and Meghalaya

  • Numerous tributaries including Subansiri, Lohit, Kameng, Manas, Dhansiri, Jia-Bharali, and Kopili

  • Inflows from hills of Meghalaya such as Khasi, Garo, and Jaintia, feeding rivers like Krishnai, Digaru, and Kulsi

Sarma noted that while the Brahmaputra’s discharge at the Indo-China border (Tuting in Arunachal Pradesh) measures around 2,000–3,000 m³/s, it increases dramatically to 15,000–20,000 m³/s in the Assam plains during peak monsoon.

This hydrological progression, he argued, proves that India’s contribution to the river system is far greater than what originates in Tibet. “The Brahmaputra grows within India — it does not shrink,” he wrote.

Turning the Threat on Its Head: Reduced Flow May Help

Counterintuitively, Sarma claimed that even if China were to hypothetically reduce the Brahmaputra’s flow, it could actually benefit India.

“If China were to cut water flow — which it has neither threatened nor hinted at officially — it might help reduce the devastating floods that strike Assam every year,” he explained. These floods, powered by excess monsoon waters, regularly displace thousands of people and cause massive agricultural and infrastructural damage in the region.

Thus, less water from upstream could aid in flood control, contradicting the view that such a scenario would be wholly negative for India.

Reclaiming the Narrative: A Message to Pakistan

Taking a sharper geopolitical tone, Sarma addressed the panic emerging from Pakistan, particularly after India’s moves to reconsider the Indus Waters Treaty. The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960, allowed Pakistan preferential access to Indus basin rivers while restricting India’s usage to a significant extent. However, India has signalled a shift in its approach to the treaty, asserting greater control over its water rights.

“Pakistan, which has enjoyed 74 years of preferential water access, now finds itself in a state of panic as India reclaims its sovereign river rights,” Sarma declared.

He also emphasised that the Brahmaputra is not controlled by a single external force but is instead powered by India’s own geography, seasonal monsoons, and deep-rooted civilisational resilience.

Brahmaputra in Strategic Discourse: A Contextual Understanding

The conversation around China's control over transboundary rivers has always been an area of concern for Indian strategists, especially in the backdrop of border tensions and diplomatic standoffs. However, experts and environmental scientists alike have highlighted that while upper riparian nations like China do have certain levers, the actual risk is often overstated, particularly in the case of rain-fed systems like the Brahmaputra.

India has also invested in river monitoring stations, satellite imaging, and bilateral water data-sharing mechanisms to ensure that it can swiftly respond to any unnatural diversions or obstructions. Historically, China has continued to share hydrological data during the monsoon season with India, as per agreements signed between the two countries.

Scientific Support for Sarma’s Statement

Numerous academic studies on the Brahmaputra confirm the data quoted by the Assam CM. Research conducted by the Indian Institute of Remote Sensing (IIRS), IITs, and international climate bodies agree that:

• Monsoon precipitation and Indian tributaries contribute the largest share of the Brahmaputra’s volume.

• During flood seasons, China-originated water becomes a minority contributor.

• The river basin is highly resilient, capable of maintaining flow even in adverse upstream conditions.

This adds weight to Sarma’s claim that India is hydrologically in control of its Brahmaputra segment.

Local Reactions and Political Impact

Sarma’s statement has gained widespread support across political, academic, and environmentalist circles in the northeast. Local leaders in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh echoed his view, adding that the narrative of foreign control over Indian rivers needs to be corrected for public clarity.

His remarks also come at a time when India is focusing on flood management, climate resilience, and interlinking of rivers, especially in the northeastern region. Sarma’s push for a fact-driven water policy discourse signals a proactive leadership stance in aligning regional understanding with national strategic goals.

Conclusion: A Call for Clarity and Calm

In conclusion, Himanta Biswa Sarma’s fact-based rebuttal offers much-needed clarity in a space increasingly filled with geopolitical rhetoric and misinformation. The Brahmaputra River, despite being transboundary, is overwhelmingly Indian in volume and nature. While geopolitical vigilance remains important, panic narratives often do more harm than good, especially in regions susceptible to environmental and social stresses.

By reclaiming the narrative with data, science, and national confidence, Sarma has not only debunked a fear-based myth but also highlighted India’s rightful hydrological resilience — a message that holds both scientific merit and strategic value in today’s interconnected world.

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