As early signals of the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections begin to emerge, the political discourse in the state has once again turned towards a long-standing and sensitive subject — the role of the Muslim electorate in determining electoral outcomes. With controversies surrounding the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the voter list, protests by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, and legal challenges in the Supreme Court, demographic realities are now at the centre of Bengal’s political calculations.

West Bengal’s political landscape has historically been shaped by its diverse population, but few factors are as electorally significant as the Muslim vote. Representing nearly a third of the state’s population, Muslims have consistently influenced the outcome of dozens of Assembly constituencies, often emerging as decisive “kingmakers” in closely contested elections.

Muslim Population in West Bengal: The Demographic Picture

According to census estimates and demographic projections, Muslims constitute approximately 29–30 per cent of West Bengal’s total population, making the state home to one of the largest Muslim populations in India, second only to Uttar Pradesh in absolute numbers.

This demographic presence is not evenly distributed across the state. Instead, Muslim populations are concentrated heavily in certain districts, creating pockets of high electoral influence. In many of these areas, Muslims form either a majority or a decisive plurality, giving them substantial leverage over electoral outcomes.

The West Bengal Legislative Assembly has 294 seats, and analysts estimate that Muslim voters play a crucial role in around 40 to 50 constituencies, where their voting preferences can decisively tilt results in favour of one party or alliance.

Districts with High Muslim Concentration

Several districts in West Bengal have particularly high concentrations of Muslim residents. These regions have traditionally witnessed intense political competition, with parties tailoring their campaigns to address community-specific concerns.

Key districts include:

• Murshidabad – One of the highest Muslim population shares in the state, with several constituencies where Muslims exceed 60 per cent of the electorate.

• Malda – Long considered a Congress stronghold in the past, now a battleground where Muslim votes are pivotal.

• North Dinajpur (Uttar Dinajpur) – Contains multiple seats with Muslim-majority electorates.

• South 24 Parganas – A large district with mixed demographics but several constituencies where Muslim voters dominate.

• Birbhum – Politically significant district with a substantial Muslim population influencing multiple seats.

In addition, districts such as Nadia, Howrah, Hooghly, and parts of Kolkata also feature constituencies where Muslim voters form a decisive bloc, even if not an outright majority.

Muslim-Majority and Muslim-Influenced Constituencies

Out of the 294 Assembly constituencies, estimates suggest that:

• Around 30 seats have a Muslim population exceeding 50 per cent, making these constituencies effectively Muslim-majority.

• An additional 10 to 20 seats have Muslim populations ranging between 30 and 50 per cent, where Muslim voters often act as swing voters or kingmakers depending on alliances and turnout.

In such seats, electoral outcomes are rarely possible without significant Muslim support, forcing political parties to carefully craft their messaging, candidate selection, and alliances.

The Muslim Factor in Bengal Politics

The “Muslim factor” has played a decisive role in West Bengal politics for decades, cutting across ideological lines. From the days of the Left Front to the rise of the Trinamool Congress (TMC), Muslim voters have often supported parties perceived as protectors of minority rights, social welfare, and secular governance.

Under Mamata Banerjee, the TMC has made consistent efforts to consolidate Muslim support through welfare schemes, minority outreach programmes, and symbolic political gestures. This strategy has paid electoral dividends, particularly in rural Bengal and Muslim-dominated districts.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), on the other hand, has struggled to make inroads into this voter base, although it has sought to expand its appeal by emphasising development, governance, and national identity issues. Smaller parties such as the Indian Secular Front (ISF) and the Congress, as well as Left formations, have also attempted to mobilise Muslim voters, often fragmenting the vote in certain regions.

2021 Assembly Election Results: A Snapshot

The importance of the Muslim electorate was clearly visible in the 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections. Polling was held in 292 of the 294 seats, as elections in two constituencies were postponed due to the death of candidates before polling.

The results were as follows:

• Trinamool Congress (TMC): 213 seats, with a vote share of around 48 per cent.

• Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): 77 seats, emerging as the principal opposition.

• Left Front and Congress: Failed to win a single seat, marking a historic decline.

• Indian Secular Front (ISF): 1 seat, contested as part of an alliance.

Political analysts widely agree that overwhelming Muslim support for the TMC was one of the key reasons behind Mamata Banerjee’s decisive victory, particularly in districts like Murshidabad, Malda, and North Dinajpur.

Why Muslim Votes Matter More Than Numbers

The influence of Muslim voters in West Bengal is not solely a function of their population share. Their impact is magnified by:

• Geographical concentration, which allows them to decisively influence outcomes in specific seats.

• High voter turnout, traditionally higher in many Muslim-majority areas.

• Bloc voting tendencies, especially when issues related to minority rights, citizenship, or identity come to the fore.

In close contests, even a small swing in Muslim votes can change the result, making these voters critical in triangular or multi-cornered fights.

Voter List Revision and Political Controversy

The ongoing controversy over the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the voter list has further sharpened the focus on Muslim voters. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has accused the Election Commission of lacking transparency and alleged that genuine voters, particularly from minority communities, could be excluded from the rolls.

The issue has taken on political overtones, with the TMC staging protests and approaching the Supreme Court, while the BJP has defended the revision exercise as a routine administrative process aimed at ensuring clean electoral rolls.

Given the demographic importance of Muslim voters, any perceived disenfranchisement could significantly alter the electoral balance in dozens of constituencies.

How Many Seats Can Muslims Influence in 2026?

Looking ahead to the 2026 Assembly elections, most political observers estimate that Muslim voters will be decisive in 40 to 50 seats, and influential in many more where margins are tight.

In a House of 294 seats, this means that nearly one-sixth of the Assembly could be directly shaped by Muslim voting patterns. In a scenario where the overall contest is close, these seats could determine who forms the government.

Party Strategies Ahead of 2026

With the stakes high, political parties are recalibrating their strategies:

• TMC is expected to focus on welfare delivery, minority outreach, and projecting Mamata Banerjee as a protector of Bengal’s pluralistic identity.

• BJP may attempt to consolidate non-Muslim votes while selectively appealing to sections of the Muslim electorate through development narratives.

• Left and Congress are likely to seek revival by positioning themselves as secular alternatives, though organisational weakness remains a challenge.

• ISF and regional outfits could play spoiler roles in Muslim-dominated constituencies by splitting votes.

Why Elections Were Held on Only 292 Seats in 2021

It is worth noting that elections in two constituencies of Murshidabad district — Shamsherganj and Jangipur — were not conducted in 2021. This was due to the tragic deaths of candidates before polling:

• Rezaul Haque, the Congress candidate from Shamsherganj.

• Pradip Nandi, the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) candidate from Jangipur.

Both deaths were linked to COVID-19-related complications, leading the Election Commission to defer polling in these seats.

Conclusion

As West Bengal moves steadily towards the 2026 Assembly elections, the Muslim population remains one of the most decisive forces in the state’s political equation. With nearly 30 per cent of the population and decisive influence over 40–50 Assembly seats, Muslim voters will once again play a central role in shaping the electoral outcome.

Whether this influence translates into a continued dominance for the TMC, a strategic breakthrough for the BJP, or a revival of opposition forces will depend on voter mobilisation, alliances, turnout, and the broader political narrative leading into 2026. What is certain, however, is that no party aspiring to power in West Bengal can afford to ignore the Muslim electorate.

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