India’s crude oil imports from the United States rose 67% month-on-month in March 2025, reaching 244,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to 146,000 bpd in February. The sharp rise comes after US President Donald Trump’s push for India to increase oil purchases from the US.

During Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington D.C. in February, Trump emphasized the importance of India buying more American oil and gas, stating, "They are going to be purchasing a lot of our oil and gas. We have more than any other country in the world."

India Balances Imports from the US and Russia

While US oil shipments to India surged, Indian refiners also increased their purchases from Russia. According to commodity market analytics firm Kpler, India imported 1.9 million bpd of Russian crude in March, up by 480,000 bpd from February’s 1.47 million bpd.

Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India has heavily relied on discounted Russian oil to meet its energy demands. Despite the surge in US imports, Russia remains India's top crude oil supplier, followed by Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the US.

The Impact of US Pressure on Global Oil Markets

The US remains the world’s largest producer of crude oil and natural gas, producing 19.4 million bpd, which accounts for 20% of global oil output. However, for India, the US has so far played a secondary role as a crude oil supplier.

With Trump pushing for more energy exports, the US is expected to expand its footprint in India’s oil market. India’s oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri reaffirmed the country's stance, stating in January that "We will continue importing from anywhere if the price is right."

India’s Oil Import Strategy and OPEC’s Role

India imports over 80% of its crude oil needs, making global energy market trends crucial for the country’s economic stability. For the past three years, India benefited from cheap Russian crude, especially as the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) restricted oil supply to maintain higher prices.

Now, under pressure from Trump’s administration, OPEC is considering increasing crude oil production starting April 2025. The move is expected to impact global oil prices, which have remained relatively stable in early 2025.

Brent Crude Prices and Market Trends

The price of Brent crude currently stands at $74.5 per barrel, marking a 16% decline compared to the same period last year. Oil prices have been volatile, with a 52-week high of $92.18 and a low of $68.33 per barrel.

As US oil supplies increase, analysts predict that India may diversify its crude sources further, taking advantage of competitive pricing. However, India’s long-term oil strategy will depend on geopolitical factors, price fluctuations, and global supply chain dynamics.

Conclusion

India’s growing imports from the US signal a shift in global energy trade, influenced by geopolitical alignments, pricing dynamics, and OPEC policies. While the US strengthens its role in India’s oil market, Russia remains a dominant supplier, offering competitive pricing. With Trump pushing for greater US oil exports and OPEC adjusting supply strategies, India will continue to balance its crude oil sources to meet its energy demands effectively.

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