According to BP's Energy Outlook, India's oil consumption is on a trajectory to surge to 7 million barrels per day (mbd) by 2030, a significant increase from the 5 mbd recorded in 2022. This projection under the 'current trajectory' underscores India's expanding energy needs and its role as a major player in the global oil market. In comparison, China's oil demand is expected to rise to 17 mbd from 14 mbd, while the US is anticipated to experience a slight decline to 18 mbd from 19 mbd over the same period. Despite these shifts, India is poised to remain the world's third-largest oil consumer by 2030.

Rising Natural Gas Consumption

In addition to oil, India's natural gas consumption is forecasted to see a substantial increase. By 2030, consumption is expected to reach 97 billion cubic meters (BCM), up from 58 BCM in 2022. This growth highlights the country's commitment to diversifying its energy sources and reducing its reliance on oil. Meanwhile, China's gas demand is projected to grow by 22% to 458 BCM, and the US is forecasted to see a modest 4% increase to 917 BCM.

Primary Energy Consumption Trends

India's primary energy consumption is set to expand by 30% to 55 exajoules (EJ) by 2030 under the 'current trajectory.' This marks a significant rise from the 42 EJ recorded in 2022. In contrast, China's energy consumption is expected to rise by 7% to 157 EJ, while the US is forecasted to see a slight decrease, with consumption declining to 87 EJ from 88 EJ in 2022. These trends reflect the differing energy dynamics and economic growth patterns across these major economies.

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Net-Zero Scenario Projections

Under the net-zero scenario, which aims for significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, India's primary energy consumption is expected to reach 53 EJ by 2030. This scenario also projects a decrease in India's oil consumption to 6 mbd. For China, primary energy consumption would stand at 148 EJ, with oil demand at 16 mbd, while the US is projected to decrease to 84 EJ, with oil consumption at 17 mbd. These projections highlight the potential impact of global efforts to transition to more sustainable energy sources.

Growth in Renewable Energy

Across all regions, renewable energy consumption is anticipated to rise significantly, reflecting global efforts towards sustainable energy solutions. This shift is crucial for mitigating climate change and ensuring long-term energy security. India's investment in renewable energy technologies, such as solar and wind power, is expected to play a pivotal role in achieving its energy and environmental goals.

Strategic Implications for India

India's growing energy demand has significant strategic implications. The increase in oil and natural gas consumption will necessitate substantial investments in infrastructure, such as pipelines, storage facilities, and refineries. Moreover, ensuring energy security will require diversifying energy imports and enhancing domestic production capabilities. The transition towards renewable energy will also involve policy support, technological innovation, and international collaboration.

Conclusion: Preparing for the Future

In conclusion, BP's Energy Outlook underscores the dynamic nature of India's energy landscape. The projected surge in oil and natural gas consumption, coupled with the strategic shift towards renewable energy, highlights the challenges and opportunities ahead. By 2030, India's energy sector will need to balance growth with sustainability, ensuring that its expanding energy needs are met in an environmentally responsible manner. This comprehensive approach will be essential for supporting the country's economic development and enhancing its position in the global energy market.

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