India’s solar module manufacturing industry is poised for significant expansion, with exports expected to rise by FY30, driven by increased domestic production and favorable policy support. A report by CRISIL highlights that despite the growing domestic demand for solar modules, India’s export-import balance in the solar module sector will improve significantly in the coming years. The domestic demand for solar modules is projected to be around 50-55 gigawatts (GW) annually from FY24 to FY30, making it a key driver for the sector’s growth.

In FY24, India exported around 7 GW of solar modules, which accounted for approximately 50% of domestic production. As production continues to increase in line with growing demand, oversupply is anticipated starting from FY25. This surplus will provide significant export opportunities for India’s solar module manufacturers, further strengthening its position in the global market. However, despite the expected rise in exports, the share of exports in total production is likely to moderate, falling to 25-32% by FY30, mainly due to higher domestic consumption.

The report also notes that while domestic production capacity will increase significantly, India’s reliance on solar module imports will decrease. The introduction of the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) in FY25 is expected to significantly reduce the import dependence for solar modules. In FY24, India’s import reliance stood at 59%, but by 2030, this reliance is projected to fall by 5-10%. This decrease will be due to the expansion of the domestic manufacturing capacity, particularly in components such as polysilicon, wafers, and cells.

However, it is important to note that while India’s module manufacturers will become less reliant on imported cells, certain critical components, such as polysilicon, will still need to be sourced from abroad. This is due to the limited integrated manufacturing capacity within the country, which prevents India from producing all the necessary materials domestically. As the sector continues to develop and policy support strengthens, India’s solar module manufacturing sector is expected to grow in global importance, contributing significantly to the country’s clean energy goals while also reducing its reliance on imports.

In conclusion, India’s solar module industry is set to become a global leader in the coming years. With increased domestic production and export potential, the country is well on its way to achieving its ambitious clean energy targets. At the same time, the reduction in import dependence will help India strengthen its energy security and economic resilience. As the country continues to invest in solar manufacturing and sustainable energy solutions, it will be well-positioned to take advantage of global solar energy trends, driving economic growth and environmental benefits for the nation.

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