India's traditionally warm and strategic relationship with Bangladesh is currently facing considerable stress, following a series of developments that have cast a shadow over bilateral ties. From rising violence against Hindu minorities in Bangladesh to geopolitical remarks by caretaker Prime Minister Muhammad Yunus, and India’s recent decision to terminate a trade trans-shipment facility, the dynamics are rapidly changing.

A Relationship Rooted in People, Not Governments

Speaking at the News18 Rising Bharat Summit during a session titled “New World Order,” India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar highlighted the people-centric nature of India’s ties with Bangladesh. He stressed that India’s bond with Bangladesh transcends politics, stating, “No country wishes Bangladesh well more than India.” The message was clear—India wants stability, democracy, and safety for all communities in its neighbourhood.

Jaishankar reiterated that while India is closely watching the political developments in Bangladesh, the focus remains on safeguarding India’s long-term people-to-people ties with the Bangladeshi populace. He expressed hope that the ongoing political unrest in Bangladesh would resolve soon and that the country would “do the right thing.”

Rise in Violence Against Minorities Raises Alarms

One of the biggest concerns driving the diplomatic chill is the alarming increase in violence against minorities in Bangladesh. According to the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), there were 2,200 reported cases of violence against Hindus in the year 2024 alone. India has repeatedly expressed its concerns to the Bangladeshi authorities, urging action to ensure the safety and rights of minority communities.

This situation is seen not just as a human rights concern but also as a geopolitical issue that could affect regional stability and the internal sentiments of the Indian populace, particularly in states like West Bengal and Assam, which share close ethnic and cultural ties with Bangladesh.

Caretaker Government and Muhammad Yunus Stir Geopolitical Tensions

The political landscape in Bangladesh shifted dramatically in August 2024, following widespread student-led protests that led to the collapse of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government. In the aftermath, a caretaker administration headed by Nobel Peace Laureate Muhammad Yunus was established.

While the caretaker government was initially welcomed as a stabilising force, Yunus's recent remarks during a meeting with Chinese officials have deeply concerned Indian policymakers. Yunus described Bangladesh as the “only gateway to South Asia”, implying that India’s northeastern states are landlocked and dependent on Bangladesh for maritime access.

His exact words—“The eastern part of India, known as the Seven Sisters, is landlocked... We are the only guardians of the ocean in this region”—were seen in India as strategically provocative, potentially aimed at aligning Bangladesh closer to China, and undermining India's influence in the region.

These remarks were viewed as a departure from the traditionally balanced foreign policy pursued by Bangladesh under previous governments. India’s diplomatic circles interpreted it as a shift toward Beijing, which could tilt the delicate regional balance.

India Terminates Trans-shipment Trade Facility to Bangladesh

On the same day Jaishankar made his statements, India took a significant step by terminating the trans-shipment facility that allowed Bangladesh to use Indian land customs stations to send export cargo to third countries via Indian ports and airports.

This facility, which had been extended in June 2020, was particularly useful for Bangladesh’s exporters, including those targeting Nepal, Bhutan, and Myanmar. It provided a crucial trade corridor through India, helping Dhaka overcome logistical challenges.

However, domestic exporters in India, especially from the apparel sector, had long urged the Indian government to reconsider this preferential treatment. They argued that unreciprocated access to Indian infrastructure gave Bangladeshi exporters an unfair advantage.

The suspension of this trade benefit is now being viewed as a strong diplomatic signal, reinforcing India’s dissatisfaction with the current situation in Dhaka. It marks a clear departure from the conciliatory tone adopted under the Hasina government and shows that India is willing to recalibrate ties based on evolving ground realities.

Strategic Implications of Yunus’s Outreach to China

Muhammad Yunus’s remarks during his meeting with Chinese officials have wider strategic implications. His suggestion that Bangladesh is a maritime gatekeeper for India’s northeast aligns with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) narrative, which seeks to enhance Chinese connectivity in South Asia through its neighbours.

India has long opposed the BRI, particularly projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that pass through disputed territory in Kashmir. Any alignment between Bangladesh and China on strategic infrastructure or trade access could further strain ties with India.

Yunus's statements could also embolden China's ambitions in the Bay of Bengal, a region where India has historically maintained dominance, both militarily and economically. New Delhi views this as a red flag, especially when combined with recent Chinese investments in Bangladeshi ports and energy infrastructure.

Political Instability in Bangladesh and India’s Calculated Response

The political vacuum left by Sheikh Hasina’s departure has led to unrest, factionalism, and rising fundamentalism in parts of Bangladesh. India has been watching these developments with concern, particularly the security implications along its 4,096-km-long porous border with Bangladesh.

India's response so far has been measured but firm. It has engaged diplomatically with the caretaker regime while simultaneously taking hardline economic and strategic steps, such as withdrawing trade benefits and publicly highlighting human rights issues.

This multi-pronged approach underscores a broader foreign policy shift under the Modi administration, which seeks to balance soft power diplomacy with realpolitik measures to safeguard India’s interests.

Conclusion: A Relationship at a Crossroads

India’s relationship with Bangladesh is at a crucial juncture. While shared history, culture, and geography bind the two nations, geopolitical alignments, human rights issues, and trade dynamics are testing the strength of this partnership.

The coming months will be critical. Whether the Yunus-led caretaker government pivots back to a balanced foreign policy or continues aligning with external powers like China could determine the future of India-Bangladesh relations.

For now, India’s message is clear: It remains committed to the people of Bangladesh, but it will act firmly to protect its national interests and uphold regional stability.

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