India’s path to a sustainable and energy-secure future has received a major boost through a new report by Climate Risks Horizon, which outlines a transformative scenario where thermal coal imports can be eliminated entirely by 2029. The key? Adding 50 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity each year.

The report, released on April 29, 2025, details how India, by strategically investing in its renewable energy infrastructure, can save over ₹5,61,066 crore (US$ 66 billion) in foreign exchange between 2025 and 2029. Over a longer horizon, from 2025 to 2034, this figure swells to ₹14,70,673 crore (US$ 173 billion). The document not only lays out a vision but backs it with economic and environmental urgency, driven by the unsustainable growth of coal imports and associated financial and physical risks.

Thermal Coal Dependency: A Growing Burden

India’s electricity sector remains heavily reliant on coal-based thermal power, with around 206 million tonnes of thermal coal imported in FY24. The import bill stood at a staggering ₹1,78,521 crore (US$ 21 billion) for the same year. This is not just a short-term spike; from 2013 to 2023, thermal coal imports increased by 58%, while the value doubled—up by 124%—driven largely by global price volatility and currency depreciation.

India is particularly vulnerable to disruptions in international coal markets, whether due to geopolitical tensions, supply chain bottlenecks, or natural disasters in coal-exporting nations like Australia and Indonesia. The financial burden of import-dependence hits not just the exchequer but also power producers and consumers, who are frequently subjected to tariff shocks and power outages.

Renewables as the Strategic Solution

To counter these growing risks, the report lays out a clear roadmap: add 50GW of renewable energy capacity every year from now until at least 2029. This would include solar, wind, hydro, and biogas sources, which are already part of India’s expanding clean energy portfolio. As of 2025, India has already installed 151GW of wind and solar power. Additional contributions from hydroelectric and bioenergy plants are steadily increasing.

The Indian government has set a national goal of 500GW non-fossil fuel energy capacity by 2030, aligning with commitments made at international climate summits and supporting its pledge towards net-zero carbon emissions by 2070. Achieving this target on time would effectively allow India to replace coal-based thermal power as the backbone of its electricity generation.

Electricity Demand: A Double-Edged Sword

India's electricity demand is skyrocketing due to multiple macroeconomic and social factors. Urbanisation, industrial expansion, and increasing use of electric vehicles and air conditioners are leading to a surge in per capita electricity consumption, which rose from 957 kWh in 2013 to 1,331 kWh in 2022. This figure is expected to climb sharply in the coming years, with climate-induced heatwaves further fuelling demand spikes.

Rising demand poses a challenge, but also an opportunity. The need for more electricity makes a compelling case for transitioning to renewables, which offer greater price stability, faster deployment, and lower environmental impact than fossil fuel alternatives.

Financial and Policy Implications

The potential ₹14.7 lakh crore savings over a decade isn’t just a number—it reflects massive financial breathing space for the Indian economy. These savings could be redirected toward other critical sectors like infrastructure, healthcare, education, or technology development.

But such a transition won't occur automatically. It requires bold policy decisions, including:

• Accelerating regulatory clearances for renewable projects.

• Investing in transmission infrastructure to ensure efficient power evacuation.

• Incentivising private sector investment, especially in underserved regions.

• Strengthening battery storage and smart grid systems to balance renewable variability.

• Creating employment and retraining programs for coal sector workers.

Geopolitical and Environmental Benefits

Beyond economics, the move away from coal imports carries strategic significance. Reducing reliance on imported coal enhances national energy security, minimizing exposure to geopolitical shocks. Furthermore, replacing coal-fired plants with renewables drastically lowers greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution, and water consumption, all of which are pressing issues in India’s environmental landscape.

Challenges and the Way Forward

Despite the clear benefits, challenges persist. Land acquisition, grid integration, and intermittency issues in renewables remain major hurdles. Moreover, the coal lobby and state-owned coal enterprises may resist large-scale changes that threaten existing business models.

To address these, India needs a whole-of-government approach, where federal and state governments coordinate policies, and climate finance mechanisms are leveraged to support cleaner technologies. Additionally, international partnerships can play a crucial role in technology transfer, capacity building, and funding innovation in the clean energy sector.

Public-Private Partnership Models

Large-scale renewable projects, such as solar parks and offshore wind farms, will need robust PPP frameworks. Already, companies like NTPC, Adani Green, ReNew Power, and Tata Power are making major strides in renewable development. Enhanced cooperation and clear policy signals from the government can accelerate this transition further.

Conclusion: A Decade to Decide India's Energy Future

India stands at a crossroads. The country has the resources, intent, and technology to transition away from coal imports and toward clean, indigenous, and scalable renewable energy. Achieving 50GW of annual renewable addition isn’t just technically feasible—it is economically necessary and environmentally imperative.

The Climate Risks Horizon report serves as a call to action for policymakers, industry leaders, and citizens alike. By 2029, India could not only eliminate coal imports, but also redefine itself as a clean energy leader on the global stage, paving the way for a sustainable and secure future.

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