In a significant update for India's agriculture and economy, Skymet Weather, a private weather forecasting agency, has predicted that India will receive a 'normal monsoon' in 2025. The forecast is based on the expectation that rainfall during the June to September season will be around 103% of the Long Period Average (LPA), which is 868.6 mm, with a model error margin of ±5%.

This projection comes as a major relief to millions across India who are battling scorching summer conditions, with the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) already predicting a hotter-than-usual summer for most parts of the country.

Normal Monsoon Expected: 103% of LPA

According to the latest report by Skymet Weather, the 2025 monsoon is expected to be normal, pegged at 103% of the LPA. This estimate has been retained from Skymet’s earlier forecast, reinforcing its confidence in a stable monsoon season this year.

The agency assigned a 40% probability of a 'normal' monsoon and 30% probability of an 'above normal' monsoon, suggesting fairly optimistic prospects for India's rain-dependent agricultural sector.

Geographical Rainfall Distribution: Good in South & West, Weak in Northeast

The forecast highlights that Western India (including Gujarat and Maharashtra) and Southern India (especially Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, and Goa) are likely to witness sufficiently good rainfall.

However, the Northeast region and hilly states in North India, including parts of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, may experience less than normal rainfall, which could lead to water stress and impact cropping patterns in these areas.

Additionally, the Western Ghats, a region highly sensitive to rainfall variations, may witness excess rainfall, especially across Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, and Goa, which are prone to flooding during monsoon surges.

Monsoon Rainfed Zones Get a Boost

Importantly, the core monsoon rainfed zones, such as Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, are predicted to receive adequate rainfall, ensuring stability in kharif crop sowing and offering a positive outlook for India’s food security and rural economy.

These regions are heavily reliant on monsoon rains for crop cultivation, particularly for staples such as rice, soybean, and pulses.

Climate Indicators Supporting Normal Monsoon

Jatin Singh, the Managing Director of Skymet Weather, provided insights into the global climate indicators affecting this year’s forecast.

He explained that the La Niña conditions, which had the potential to support good rainfall, were weak and short-lived, and have already started fading. Meanwhile, El Niño, often associated with weaker monsoons, is now ruled out for the 2025 season.

“ENSO-neutral is likely to be the most dominant category during the Indian Summer Monsoon,” Singh said.

ENSO refers to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a key driver of global weather variability. An ENSO-neutral phase typically means neither El Niño nor La Niña is influencing global weather patterns strongly.

Role of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

Another positive factor contributing to a stable monsoon is the expected development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

A positive IOD usually leads to warmer waters in the western Indian Ocean, which enhances monsoon currents and rainfall over India. According to Singh:

“Preliminary forecast of positive IOD will work in tandem with ENSO for better Monsoon prospects. Historically, ENSO-neutral coupled with positive IOD tended to produce a worthy Monsoon.”

This combination significantly increases the likelihood of a good monsoon, especially during the latter half of the season.

Second Half of Monsoon to Perform Better

Skymet's model suggests that the second half of the monsoon (August–September) is likely to perform better than the initial phase (June–July).

This trend is particularly crucial for farmers, who often need consistent and late-season rainfall for crop maturity and harvesting. A robust second half can also replenish groundwater levels and fill reservoirs, aiding urban water supply and hydroelectric generation.

Impact on Agriculture and Rural Economy

The forecast of a normal monsoon in 2025 is excellent news for India's agriculture sector, which contributes around 18% to the country's GDP and employs nearly half of its population.

A good monsoon ensures:

• Timely sowing and harvesting

• Better crop yields

• Improved rural incomes

• Lower food inflation

It also helps in containing input costs for farmers by reducing dependency on irrigation, particularly in rainfed areas, which lack consistent access to canal or tube well water.

Relief After a Harsh Summer

The IMD has already warned of severe summer conditions in 2025, with heatwaves expected to be more frequent and intense than usual. Therefore, the arrival of a normal and timely monsoon could bring much-needed relief and cool down temperatures across the country.

The first monsoon showers are expected to hit the southern coast of Kerala by early June, gradually progressing northwards over the weeks.

Risks and Uncertainties Still Exist

While the overall forecast is positive, Skymet does note some uncertainties:

• Short-term weather patterns such as Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) can temporarily disrupt rainfall

• Localised flooding may occur in areas receiving excess rainfall, especially along the Western Ghats

• Weaker monsoon in the Northeast could affect tea production, vegetable farming, and biodiversity zones

Farmers and state authorities are advised to stay informed through updates and use smart irrigation and weather-tracking tools to plan better.

Conclusion

The 2025 monsoon outlook by Skymet Weather offers a promising scenario for India’s economy, agriculture, and water management systems. With ENSO-neutral conditions, positive IOD, and good rainfall predicted in key zones, the country may avoid the severe impacts of weather volatility that often challenge its farming community.

Stakeholders—from farmers to policymakers—should prepare for a productive and beneficial season, while also staying alert to localized risks and ensuring climate resilience measures are in place.

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