India’s ambition to become a developed nation by 2047 hinges on a crucial requirement: the country must generate at least 8 million new jobs every year for the next decade or more. This estimate was put forward by Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V. Anantha Nageswaran during his address at the Columbia India Summit 2025 held in New York. His remarks outline a roadmap for economic transformation amidst increasing global uncertainty.

The Urgent Need to Boost Manufacturing and Employment

The CEA emphasized that India must significantly increase the manufacturing sector's share in its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A vibrant manufacturing sector has historically been the engine of employment generation in most developed economies. For India, expanding manufacturing is not just about economic growth—it’s central to absorbing the millions entering the workforce each year.

India’s current growth trajectory has averaged over 8% annually post-pandemic. However, to sustain even a 6.5% growth rate in the coming years will require stronger domestic foundations, particularly since global trade is no longer the robust growth engine it once was.

Balancing Technology and Labour in the Age of AI

A central theme in Nageswaran’s address was the challenge of maintaining labour-centric economic growth in an age of artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, and automation. These technologies threaten entry-level and low-skilled jobs, especially in the services sector, where many developing countries, including India, typically absorb surplus labour.

He stated that India must carefully integrate AI and automation into its economy without sacrificing job creation. This calls for reskilling the workforce, supporting job-rich sectors, and leveraging human capital to complement, rather than compete with, technology.

MSMEs and Global Value Chains: Catalysts for Inclusive Growth

The CEA further emphasized the strategic importance of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs). These enterprises are the backbone of many economies and a key component of inclusive growth. India needs to develop a strong MSME ecosystem to drive employment, innovation, and competitiveness.

Moreover, Nageswaran stressed the necessity for Indian industries to plug into Global Value Chains (GVCs). Being part of global supply networks not only increases exports and investments but also encourages adoption of international quality standards, thereby enhancing productivity and global credibility.

Domestic Reforms and Economic Resilience Are Critical

Given that the external environment will be less favourable than it was post-1990, India must depend more on internal reforms and structural shifts. This includes:

• Simplifying regulations

• Enhancing research and development (R&D)

• Improving logistics and infrastructure

• Focusing on investment efficiency

• Increasing resilience to geopolitical shocks

Such domestic efforts will be vital in compensating for the reduced role of global trade in India’s economic engine.

Public Spending and Forecasts from UNCTAD

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has forecasted that India’s economy will grow at 6.5% in 2025, citing strong public spending and easing monetary conditions as supportive factors. This growth forecast is encouraging but hinges on sustained domestic momentum and policy continuity.

Shaping the Future Amid Global Challenges

The global economic scenario over the next 20 years, according to Nageswaran, will be far more volatile and unpredictable than the post-1990s era. Geopolitical tensions, climate change, supply chain disruptions, and rapid tech shifts will challenge India’s economic stability. Hence, adaptability, innovation, and long-term policy thinking will be crucial.

Conclusion: An Opportunity to Lead

India’s demographic advantage, entrepreneurial talent, and digital prowess place it in a unique position to lead global economic transformation. However, to actualize this potential, India must adopt a multi-pronged strategy focused on job creation, manufacturing revival, MSME growth, and technological integration.

The next two decades present an opportunity—and a test. If India succeeds in creating 8 million jobs annually, enhancing manufacturing, and reforming its domestic economy, it will not just reach its 2047 goal—it will redefine global economic leadership in the 21st century.

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