The recent suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) by India has brought the long-standing water dispute between India and Pakistan into sharp focus. Pakistan has reacted strongly to this decision, with Power Minister Sardar Awais Leghari describing it as an act of "water warfare." This geopolitical maneuver, in the backdrop of increasing tensions, signals a new chapter in the ongoing conflict between the two nations. Understanding the intricacies of this development requires delving into the history of the Indus Waters Treaty and the implications of India's latest decision.

Understanding the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)

The Indus Waters Treaty was signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan under the mediation of the World Bank. The treaty governs the usage of the Indus River system, which includes the Indus and its tributaries, specifically dividing the rights to its waters between the two nations. The treaty grants Pakistan exclusive control over the Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab), while India has control over the Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej). Over the years, the treaty has helped manage the distribution of water, ensuring equitable sharing and preventing significant water disputes.

However, India’s decision to suspend the treaty has introduced a new element of uncertainty in the region, with major implications for Pakistan’s water security.

The Political and Geopolitical Reactions to India's Move

Pakistan’s government, led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, quickly condemned the suspension, accusing India of acting in haste and without consideration for the consequences. Pakistan's leaders, including Sherry Rehman and Ishaq Dar, argued that the treaty does not allow for unilateral suspension and termed India’s move illegal. They pointed to Article XII, which stipulates that the treaty can be modified through mutual agreement but does not provide for unilateral suspension.

This argument, however, overlooks the fact that India invoked Article XII of the treaty for the first time in January 2023, seeking to modify the terms of the treaty. Pakistan's refusal to engage in negotiations at that time, despite India's second notice for talks in August 2024, further complicates the matter. India’s suspension may be seen as a response to this lack of cooperation from Pakistan, and as a strategy to reassert its control over the situation.

The Impact on Pakistan's Water Security

While immediate changes in water flow are not expected, the suspension of the treaty opens up a range of possibilities that could have a long-term impact on Pakistan’s water security. Pakistan’s water supply, particularly from the Western Rivers, remains unaffected for now, but the suspension brings into play the possibility of India making small modifications in the treaty’s operations. For instance, the Indus Commissioners of the two countries might cease meeting, and there may be a halt to the exchange of vital data regarding river flows.

The impact may not be felt immediately but could become more apparent in the coming months, particularly during seasonal fluctuations in water levels. For instance, the absence of real-time data sharing during the rainy season could disrupt Pakistan’s water management efforts, leading to significant challenges during the lean winter months when water availability is lower.

India’s Strategic Approach: A Geopolitical Chess Game

India's decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty is seen by many as a calculated move in a long-term geopolitical strategy. It demonstrates India's ability to leverage its control over the water resources as a tool in the broader context of India-Pakistan relations. This decision could also influence regional geopolitics, with potential ramifications for other countries in South Asia, as well as the role of international actors like the United States and the World Bank, which have historically been involved in mediation efforts.

While Pakistan’s accusation of "water warfare" is a provocative one, it does not yet change the status of the water flows. For India, the IWT suspension is more of a strategic pause, creating a period of uncertainty for Pakistan, and leaving open a range of future possibilities. It will be interesting to see how the Indian government further uses this situation to achieve its geopolitical objectives.

Legal and Diplomatic Implications

India’s suspension of the treaty also raises important legal and diplomatic questions. Pakistan’s refusal to engage in renegotiating the terms under Article XII is a pivotal point in the unfolding drama. This could potentially allow India to invoke further modifications to the treaty without the need for mutual agreement, something that would have serious consequences for Pakistan’s future water rights. Additionally, international law and the diplomatic consequences of unilateral actions in such treaties will likely become a subject of debate.

Conclusion

In conclusion, India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is not just a water dispute but a significant step in the geopolitical chess game between the two nations. While immediate changes in water distribution are not likely, the potential for future tensions and shifts in the balance of power in South Asia remains high. The key to resolving the dispute lies in whether both nations can return to the negotiating table and address the legal and political challenges that have emerged with this unprecedented move.

The Upcoming IPOs in this week and coming weeks are  Wagons Learning, Srigee DLM, Manoj Jewellers.

The Current active IPO are Kenrik Industries,Arunaya Organics, Ather Energy, Iware Supplychain Services.

Start your Stock Market Journey and Apply in IPO by Opening Free Demat Account in Choice Broking FinX.

Join our Trading with CA Abhay Telegram Channel for regular Stock Market Trading and Investment Calls by CA Abhay Varn - SEBI Registered Research Analyst.