The political transition in Bangladesh under Dr. Muhammad Yunus has triggered serious concerns in Delhi. What began as a seemingly democratic reset now appears to be a strategic shift in foreign and domestic priorities, potentially undermining long-standing regional partnerships. India, already wary of Pakistan and China’s influence in the region, finds itself at a critical junction with a neighbor that is seen drifting from collaboration to confrontation.

Weaponizing Social Media and Shaping Public Narrative

The Yunus administration’s media strategy is both modern and manipulative. Instead of conventional press statements, ministers engage the public through elaborate Facebook posts—sharing opinions on sensitive matters often beyond their official brief. This crowding out of social media with state-controlled narratives, although subtle, effectively dominates the national discourse and dilutes accountability.

One such instance involved Asif Nazrul, a powerful cabinet minister and former law professor, who shared a post blaming the Indian government for a recent Kashmir attack. Despite deleting the post later, screenshots were widely circulated, triggering anger and alarm within Indian policy circles.

Northeast India and the China-Pakistan Angle

India’s concerns go beyond social media. The strategic realignments under Dr. Yunus’s leadership pose tangible threats to India’s Northeast. The decision to allow Pakistani shipments without physical verification and encourage Chinese investments near the Siliguri Corridor and Mongla Port is interpreted in India as a serious breach of trust.

The Siliguri Corridor, often dubbed the “Chicken’s Neck,” is a narrow stretch that connects mainland India with the Northeast. Any activity in this sensitive region, particularly involving China or Pakistan, is a red flag for Delhi.

Water Wars: A Dangerous Precedent

The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan after decades of tension—even amid wars—sent ripples across the region. For Bangladesh, a lower riparian country, the signal was clear: India could reconsider water-sharing arrangements if national security is compromised.

The Ganga Water Treaty is up for renewal next year, and concerns are high. India already shares real-time flood alerts and meteorological data with Dhaka. Any disruption, deliberate or accidental, could have catastrophic consequences for Bangladesh. Moreover, India is ramping up hydropower infrastructure in the Northeast to manage water flow more independently.

Revisiting Regional Alliances: BBIN vs SAARC

India, under Narendra Modi, has pushed for stronger regional cooperation through the BBIN initiative (Bhutan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal)—a response to the ineffectiveness of SAARC, long hindered by Pakistan’s obstructionist policies.

However, Dr. Yunus has reversed course, choosing to revive SAARC and engage with Pakistan, much to India’s dismay. This pivot is not just ideological but also seen as a deliberate provocation, designed to reduce India’s regional influence.

Even economically, Pakistan offers little to Bangladesh, making this realignment more political than pragmatic. The growing warmth between Islamabad and Dhaka mirrors decades-old strategies, ones that seem outdated in today’s multipolar world where India aspires for a global leadership role.

India's Strategic Recalibration

In response, India has begun taking decisive actions. This week, Modi’s government expelled all Pakistani nationals from India within 48 hours, ending the SAARC visa exemption for Pakistanis. These moves mark a shift from diplomatic restraint to strategic assertiveness.

The message to Bangladesh is unambiguous: India will not tolerate any threat to its sovereignty or internal security. While Sheikh Hasina understood this balance well, Dr. Yunus appears to be ignoring history.

Terrorism, Safe Havens, and Old Ghosts

India’s discomfort also stems from Bangladesh’s chequered history with terrorism. From sheltering northeastern insurgents to the infamous 10-truck arms haul case in 2004, which implicated top officials, the past is filled with warning signs. Shockingly, under Yunus, many accused in the case have been acquitted.

The resurfacing of banned outfits like Hizb-ut Tahrir and Ansarullah Bangla Team, and the appearance of Al-Qaeda flags in Dhaka, raises alarm about a potential return to radicalism. India, post-Pulwama, is in no mood to overlook such signals.

Final Thoughts: Choosing the Right Side of History

India has always approached its neighbors with a spirit of cooperation and regional growth. But security cannot be compromised in pursuit of diplomacy. The Yunus regime’s overtures to China and Pakistan, paired with provocative digital messaging and rollback of bilateral agreements, is forcing Delhi to rethink its approach.

Bangladesh has a choice to make: Partner with India for shared prosperity or isolate itself by aligning with adversarial forces. The consequences of choosing the latter may prove too costly—not just diplomatically, but economically and socially.

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