In a strong retaliatory move following the Pahalgam terror attack that took the lives of 26 people, the Indian government has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan, marking a historic decision in South Asia’s diplomatic and environmental framework. The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the immediate and indefinite suspension of the treaty, citing national security concerns and cross-border terror links associated with the incident in Jammu and Kashmir.

What is the Indus Waters Treaty?

The Indus Waters Treaty, signed on September 19, 1960, was a landmark water-distribution agreement between India and Pakistan, facilitated by the World Bank. The treaty was signed in Karachi by India’s then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistan’s then President Field Marshal Ayub Khan. Its primary objective was to ensure the equitable distribution of water from the Indus River system, one of the largest and most critical water systems in the region.

Rivers Covered Under the Treaty

The Indus system comprises six rivers:

• Eastern Rivers (allocated to India):

  • Ravi

  • Beas

  • Sutlej

• Western Rivers (allocated to Pakistan):

  • Indus

  • Chenab

  • Jhelum

Under the treaty, India had exclusive rights to use water from the eastern rivers for purposes including irrigation, industrial use, and hydroelectric power generation, while Pakistan was granted control over the western rivers, though India could use them for limited irrigation and non-consumptive uses like power generation.

The mean annual flow of the eastern rivers was approximately 41 billion cubic metres (BCM), whereas the western rivers had a higher combined flow of 99 BCM. In essence, India utilized about 30% of the Indus system waters, while Pakistan received the remaining 70%, despite the fact that the rivers originate from Indian territory.

A Treaty That Survived Wars

One of the most remarkable aspects of the Indus Waters Treaty was its resilience. Even during periods of high political tension and war—namely the conflicts of 1965, 1971, and the Kargil War in 1999—the treaty remained operational. It was hailed internationally as a rare and enduring example of cooperation between two nuclear-armed adversaries.

Why Has India Suspended the Treaty Now?

The decision to suspend the IWT comes amid escalating tensions following the terror attack in Pahalgam, for which The Resistance Front (TRF), a group believed to be a proxy for Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility. Investigations have reportedly uncovered cross-border linkages, prompting India to act decisively.

In addition to the Indus Waters Treaty, India has also:

• Shut down the Attari Integrated Check Post, halting cross-border trade.

• Downgraded diplomatic ties with Islamabad.

• Suspended the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES) for Pakistani nationals, giving those currently in India 48 hours to leave.

The decision was taken during a high-level Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) meeting following PM Modi’s early return from a visit to Saudi Arabia. The CCS resolved to implement punitive and strategic countermeasures in response to the attack.

Implications of the Suspension

The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is bound to have profound implications, not just for India-Pakistan bilateral ties, but also for millions of Pakistani citizens who depend heavily on water from the Indus system for agriculture, drinking water, and hydropower.

Experts predict that:

• Pakistan’s already water-stressed regions could face a severe crisis.

• India might expedite dam and canal projects on the western rivers.

• The World Bank and international water governance forums may need to step in.

However, it's crucial to note that India hasn’t abrogated the treaty, but suspended it, leaving a window for possible diplomatic restoration depending on future events.

Pakistan’s Response

In response, Pakistan has called for an emergency meeting of its National Security Committee, chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. According to Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, the meeting will include military chiefs and senior cabinet ministers to formulate an “appropriate response” to India’s actions. Pakistan is expected to raise the issue internationally, potentially involving the United Nations and the World Bank as stakeholders.

What’s Next?

India’s action marks a significant departure from the diplomatic status quo and could potentially reset the framework of India-Pakistan relations. Analysts warn of regional instability but also see this as a strategic recalibration after decades of restraint.

At a time when the region is grappling with water scarcity, climate change, and geopolitical instability, the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is a wake-up call on how natural resources can be wielded as geopolitical tools in the modern world.

Conclusion

The Indus Waters Treaty, once considered a beacon of peace and cooperation, has now become a symbol of shifting power dynamics and hardened stances between two historic rivals. As the situation evolves, the world will be watching how this crucial flashpoint over water sharing and national security unfolds, and what it means for the future of Indo-Pak relations.

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