India has set an ambitious target to increase bilateral trade with the United States to ₹43.38 lakh crore ($500 billion) by 2030, with plans to negotiate a new bilateral trade agreement. The initiative is expected to strengthen India’s export sectors while improving its global trade competitiveness.

Current India-US Trade Relations and Surplus Trends

In 2023, India’s total trade with the US stood at ₹16.49 lakh crore ($190.08 billion), with:

• A trade surplus of ₹3.78 lakh crore ($43.65 billion) in goods.
• A trade surplus of ₹56,140 crore ($6.47 billion) in services.

This surplus highlights India’s strong export growth in technology, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and engineering goods.

Key Sectors Driving India-US Trade Growth

India’s trade expansion will focus on three key sectors:

1. Technology – Increased trade in IT services, semiconductors, and digital infrastructure.
2. Defence – Strengthening defence partnerships and joint manufacturing initiatives.
3. Green Energy – Expanding renewable energy collaborations in solar, wind, and hydrogen fuel.

Challenges in India-US Trade Negotiations

Despite ambitious targets, experts warn against a full-fledged India-US Free Trade Agreement (FTA). According to Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) Founder Ajay Srivastava, challenges include:

• The US prefers targeted tariff deals over broad FTA-driven trade liberalization.
• Limited business visa expansion reduces India’s ability to export skilled services.
• India is already part of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), covering several trade-related aspects.

Trade Policy Recommendations: Sector-Specific Agreements Over FTA

Given these concerns, Srivastava and other experts recommend sector-specific agreements instead of a comprehensive FTA. This would allow India to negotiate better terms in high-value sectors like defence, electronics, and renewable energy without broader trade-offs.

Conclusion: Strengthening India-US Trade Ties for the Future

India’s ₹43.38 lakh crore ($500 billion) trade target with the US by 2030 reflects strong economic ties and expanding sectoral collaborations. While a full FTA remains unlikely, sector-specific trade agreements could help achieve this goal while addressing key trade barriers and policy concerns.

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