India’s exports are set to surpass $825 billion in the financial year 2025–26, despite challenging global economic conditions, according to Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal. Speaking to media, Mr. Goyal stated that India has consistently performed well in times of global uncertainty, and expressed confidence that FY26 will see even stronger export growth.

Amidst geopolitical disruptions, including the Russia-Ukraine war, Israel-Hamas conflict, and the Red Sea crisis, India managed to register record-breaking exports of $825 billion in 2024–25, compared to $778 billion in FY24.

India’s Export Strength Amid Global Uncertainty

Mr. Goyal pointed out that while global trade is expected to contract in 2025–26 as per multilateral agency estimates, India has shown resilience and adaptability. He said:

“The world is going through severe geo-political challenges. But India has always emerged as a winner in such times. We did a record $825 billion exports in 2024–25. This year, we hope to do much better.”

When asked if FY25's figures will be surpassed, he confidently responded, “We will certainly be able to cross that.”

FIEO Forecast: $1 Trillion Target in Sight

The Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) has projected a 21% year-on-year growth in India’s overall exports, targeting a milestone of $1 trillion during FY26.

According to FIEO President S.C. Ralhan, this projected surge is primarily driven by global buyers looking to diversify their sourcing. As economies worldwide grapple with supply chain disruptions and volatile trade relations, many are turning to India as a stable alternative.

Breakdown of FY26 Export Projections:

• Merchandise exports are expected to grow by 12%, reaching $525–535 billion, up from $437 billion in FY25.

• Services exports are projected to rise by 20%, reaching $465–475 billion, compared to $387 billion in FY25.

These figures, combined, are likely to push total exports beyond the $1 trillion mark for the first time in India's history.

Key Growth Sectors for 2025–26

Several major sectors are expected to fuel this export momentum:

1. Electronics – Buoyed by government initiatives like PLI schemes and the rising global demand for Indian-made consumer electronics and semiconductors.

2. Engineering goods – India continues to be a major supplier of machinery, tools, and transport equipment to the global market.

3. Pharmaceuticals – Strong global trust in India’s generic medicines and vaccine manufacturing capabilities.

4. Textiles and clothing – With rising orders from countries diversifying away from traditional hubs like China.

5. Agriculture and processed food – Supported by improved global access and demand for Indian produce.

6. Chemicals and petrochemicals – Continued demand from industrial buyers worldwide.

FTAs as a Strategic Lever for Export Growth

Mr. Goyal underscored the importance of well-negotiated Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) in boosting exports. He criticised earlier FTAs signed under the Congress-led UPA regime, calling them unbalanced and harmful to domestic industries.

He explained that earlier agreements:

• Opened India to competition from nations like those in ASEAN, which were India’s direct manufacturing competitors.

• Reduced duties on finished goods while keeping import taxes on raw materials, leading to inverted duty structures and damaging Indian manufacturers.

By contrast, the Modi government, he said, is signing FTAs based on strategic collaboration rather than competition. Some of the key trade agreements include those with:

• United Arab Emirates (UAE)

• Australia

• European Free Trade Association (EFTA)

• United Kingdom

• European Union

• Oman

• Peru

• Chile

India-EFTA TEPA: A Game Changer

A landmark trade pact signed this year is the Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA) between India and the EFTA bloc (Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein).

• Signed on March 10, 2024, TEPA will come into force on October 1, 2025.

• Under this agreement, EFTA countries have committed to invest $100 billion in India over 15 years.

• In return, India will lower or eliminate duties on various high-value products such as:

  • Swiss watches

  • Chocolates

  • Cut and polished diamonds

Will India Have to Loosen Regulations for Investment?

When asked if India would need to ease its regulatory framework to meet the EFTA investment commitment, Mr. Goyal replied:

“This is based on the current business environment. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is continuously focusing on ease of doing business, deregulation, reducing compliance burden, and decriminalising laws. I believe this $100 billion will be exceeded and come faster.”

This aligns with India’s broader policy direction aimed at attracting foreign investment, reducing red tape, and enhancing competitiveness.

India’s Resilience in the Face of Global Trade Volatility

India’s record export performance in FY25, achieved despite the Red Sea shipping crisis, sanctions on Russia, and the Middle East conflict, shows its robust trade frameworks and logistics adaptability.

While multilateral agencies predict a contraction in global trade, India is expected to buck the trend due to:

• Diversified export markets

• Strategic government policies

• Digital transformation of trade facilitation

• Growing demand for Indian services and goods

Conclusion: India’s Export Growth Story Stays Intact

The Commerce Ministry’s confidence, backed by FIEO projections, presents a strong case that India will not only surpass $825 billion in exports this year, but might also be on track to achieve the ambitious $1 trillion milestone.

With strong policy support, strategic FTAs, and private sector readiness, India’s export sector is poised to drive economic growth, create jobs, and solidify the country’s position as a global trade powerhouse.

Disclaimer

This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on individual risk tolerance and consultation with SEBI-registered advisors. Market conditions are volatile and subject to change. Neither the author nor the platform is responsible for losses arising from use of this information.

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