India’s iron ore, coking coal and potash demand is projected to surge dramatically in the coming years as the country enters a phase of accelerated infrastructure development and manufacturing-led economic growth, according to the latest Economic and Commodity Outlook report published by BHP, the world’s largest diversified mining company.

In its assessment of long-term market trends, BHP indicates that India’s steel demand is expected to quadruple over the next 25 years, making the country one of the largest consumers of iron ore and coking coal globally. As a natural consequence, India’s import dependence for critical steelmaking raw materials is expected to rise, even though the country currently maintains sizeable iron ore mining capacity.

Steel Demand Surge to Drive Raw Material Imports

India’s massive infrastructure build-out — covering roads, railways, metro projects, airports, digital infrastructure, and renewable energy facilities — is already creating sustained demand for steel. In addition, the Government’s emphasis on domestic manufacturing through initiatives such as “Make in India,” Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes, and National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) is pushing industrial output to new highs.

While India produced close to 140 million tonnes of crude steel in FY24, BHP anticipates that annual steel production could rise well beyond 300 million tonnes over the next 15–20 years to match demand. This will significantly increase the requirement for:

BHP notes that even though India has traditionally exported excess iron ore — averaging 30 million tonnes per year over the past decade — rising domestic consumption, coupled with occasional supply disruptions, will likely push the country to become an opportunistic importer of high-grade iron ore in the years ahead.

Potash Demand Rises on Agriculture and Industrial Consumption

Alongside metals, India’s demand for potash, a critical raw material used both in fertiliser manufacturing and industrial processing, has grown sharply. Benchmark potash prices for India rose to ₹30,379/tonne (US$349) in H1 CY25 — roughly 25% higher than last year. Imports of potash increased by more than 20% in the first five months of 2025, reflecting strong demand and improved affordability.

BHP highlights that India’s potash demand is expected to remain resilient in line with:

• Higher disposable income in rural areas

• Rising adoption of high-yield agricultural practices

• Increasing use of potash in speciality chemicals, water treatment and glass production

Global Commodity Perspective and India’s Strategic Role

While BHP forecasts that global supply of steelmaking raw materials and nickel will likely exceed demand in the near-to-medium term, strong domestic demand in India is expected to offset the impact of slowing consumption in some other large economies, such as China.

The company notes that:

• Refined copper and uranium markets are projected to remain largely balanced

• Steel and nickel could move into temporary surplus

• Potash prices and volumes are expected to remain stable owing to strong agricultural demand

One of the pivotal insights from BHP’s report is that India — along with other emerging Asian economies — is entering a structural period of sustained growth, underpinned by favourable demographics, regional supply chain integration and domestic consumption. As a result, India’s raw material demand will become a critical balancing factor in global mineral markets over the coming 10–20 years.

Conclusion

India’s emergence as the world’s fastest-growing major economy is likely to transform global trade flows for key minerals. Significant increases in public infrastructure investment, private sector capital expenditure and manufacturing output are already placing upward pressure on demand for iron ore, coking coal and potash.

As domestic supply constraints become more apparent, BHP’s analysis suggests that India will increasingly rely on imported raw materials to meet its expanding needs—a development that could drive long-term commercial opportunities for global suppliers and re-shape regional commodity markets.

With strong macroeconomic momentum and long-term policy support, India is set to play an unprecedented role in shaping the future of global raw material demand, particularly in steel-linked minerals and industrial fertilisers.

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