India’s mobile services market is on a transformative path, with its total revenue expected to grow from ₹2,58,180 crore (US$ 30.2 billion) in 2023 to ₹3,35,976 crore (US$ 39.3 billion) by 2029, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4%, according to a report by GlobalData. This expansion reflects the growing demand for mobile data services, increased internet penetration, and the rollout of 5G technology across the country.

The telecom sector in India has evolved drastically in recent years. While mobile voice service revenue is forecast to decline at a rate of 2.5% annually due to the proliferation of internet-based communication tools and bundled voice offerings, this decline is expected to be effectively offset by robust growth in mobile data services. The widespread use of WhatsApp, Telegram, and other VoIP platforms has led users to rely less on traditional voice calls, especially in urban and semi-urban regions.

In contrast, mobile data service revenue is set to increase significantly, with an estimated CAGR of 9.3% from 2024 to 2029. This growth is being powered by two primary factors: the expanded availability of 4G and 5G networks, and the rising consumption of data-heavy content, particularly online video, OTT platforms, and social media. These platforms have transformed how Indian consumers use mobile internet, making video streaming and real-time interaction central to everyday mobile usage.

The report predicts a striking increase in average monthly data consumption per user—from 23.9 GB in 2024 to 51.5 GB in 2029. This more than doubling reflects the growing accessibility of affordable smartphones, cheaper data plans, and an increasingly digital lifestyle among both urban and rural consumers. Moreover, as digital literacy improves and smartphones penetrate even the remotest corners of the country, this surge in data consumption is likely to be sustained over the next decade.

The shift in India’s telecom usage is not just technological but also strategic. 5G technology is expected to become the dominant mobile subscription by 2029, overtaking 4G. While 4G will continue to be the leading network technology until 2026, 5G subscriptions will grow rapidly, eventually making up 67% of all mobile connections by 2029. This major shift is being driven by the proliferation of 5G-capable devices, innovative promotional offers, and an increasing reliance on real-time, high-speed data connectivity across sectors like education, healthcare, and agriculture.

Reliance Jio, India’s largest telecom operator, is expected to retain its leadership position through 2029. Its dominance is attributed to a combination of its widespread 4G infrastructure, early investment in 5G rollout, and affordable service pricing, which have enabled it to capture and sustain a massive subscriber base. As per GlobalData’s findings, Jio’s continued investment in network expansion, particularly in rural and semi-urban regions, places it in a strong position to benefit from the upcoming digital wave.

In fact, the rural telecom market is being recognized as a key growth area. Government initiatives such as Digital India, BharatNet, and state-level partnerships are enhancing digital infrastructure in villages and Tier-III towns. Telecom operators that actively invest in rural connectivity and digital inclusion are likely to reap substantial benefits. Affordable smartphone availability, digital payment solutions, e-governance, and e-commerce adoption are among the many factors driving rural data usage and pushing telecom revenue growth.

The report also brings attention to India’s unique mobile consumption pattern. Unlike many Western markets where fixed broadband dominates, India is a mobile-first nation, with the majority of internet access occurring through smartphones. This presents both opportunities and challenges for telecom companies. While mobile-centric growth provides scalability, it also demands that networks be robust, reliable, and capable of handling high volumes of concurrent traffic. Operators must continue to invest in fiber backhaul, small cell infrastructure, and network automation to maintain service quality.

Another interesting trend highlighted is the increasing preference for content-based data plans. These include OTT bundle packs, gaming subscriptions, and social media boosters, which are becoming popular, especially among younger users. Operators are leveraging these trends to differentiate themselves in a competitive market. This shift also presents potential for value-added services (VAS) growth, an area that remains underexploited in India’s mobile ecosystem.

The transition to 5G is also expected to unlock new revenue streams in sectors beyond consumer mobile usage. Industrial IoT, smart agriculture, connected health, and autonomous mobility are areas where 5G will play a pivotal role. Though these segments are still at a nascent stage in India, their long-term potential is enormous, particularly as policy frameworks evolve to support their growth.

Additionally, Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) is projected to rise in alignment with the premium pricing of 5G plans and the enhanced quality of service. Operators are expected to gradually shift focus from customer acquisition to customer monetization, ensuring higher ARPU through differentiated offerings. Over time, data monetization, cloud-based solutions, AI-enabled services, and enterprise connectivity will supplement core mobile revenues.

As of 2025, India already boasts over 1.15 billion mobile connections, with a smartphone penetration rate of more than 73%. With 5G gaining momentum and data consumption habits deepening, this number is only set to grow. The government’s focus on telecom infrastructure as a foundational element of digital transformation has created a fertile ground for industry expansion.

Telecom firms are now moving beyond traditional models, evolving into digital service providers. The ability to deliver superior user experiences, combined with affordable pricing, will determine success in the next phase. With fierce competition among top players like Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel, and Vodafone Idea, innovation in products, partnerships, and pricing will be crucial to capturing market share.

In conclusion, the Indian telecom sector is poised for robust growth, with mobile services revenue forecast to reach ₹3.35 lakh crore by 2029, powered by the adoption of 5G, rising mobile data consumption, and deepening rural connectivity. While the decline in voice revenues may pose short-term challenges, the surge in mobile internet usage, alongside government support and private investment, provides a strong foundation for sustained long-term growth. As the industry evolves into a technology-driven ecosystem, India is well on track to becoming a global digital leader in mobile services.

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