India is projected to produce 8-10 million tonnes of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) by 2040, necessitating investments between US$ 70-85 billion, according to a Deloitte India report titled “Green Wings: India’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Revolution in the Making.” This production is expected to significantly advance the aviation sector's decarbonization efforts, potentially reducing carbon emissions by 20–25 million tonnes annually. The report indicates that achieving an 8-10 million tonne production capacity would exceed India’s estimated domestic demand of 4.5 million tonnes under a 15% blending mandate for 2040 across all flights, positioning India as a potential leading SAF exporter in global markets.

The projected capital investment of US$ 71.48-83.39 billion (Rs. 6-7 lakh crore) is expected to have a substantial socio-economic impact, creating between 1.1 and 1.4 million jobs across the SAF value chain while reducing crude oil import bills by US$ 5-7 billion annually. Furthermore, SAF production could enhance farmers' incomes by 10-15% by utilizing agricultural residue as feedstock, thereby offering a sustainable alternative to the current practice of burning.

Mr. Viral Thakker, Partner and Sustainability and Climate Leader at Deloitte South Asia, remarked, "By empowering farmers and reducing carbon emissions, SAF offers a blueprint for sustainable economic growth." Deloitte’s analysis highlights that India’s estimated surplus of 230 million tonnes of agricultural residue will be crucial for SAF production, serving as a vital feedstock for ethanol (2G) production, which is integral to the Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) technology pathway. Other feedstocks like Municipal Solid Waste (MSW), used cooking oil (UCO), sweet sorghum, seaweed, and industrial waste will further enhance SAF production capabilities as technologies mature.

Mr. Prashanth Nutula, Partner at Deloitte India, noted that the global drive to produce SAF is gaining momentum. With a 2-3% share in the global aviation turbine fuel (ATF) market, India is well-positioned within the global aviation fuel landscape, including SAF. Successful SAF adoption will require collective efforts from all stakeholders in the ecosystem, including establishing a clear, long-term demand roadmap, such as Renewable Purchase Obligations (RPO), to stimulate early investments.

Forming multi-stakeholder Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) involving airlines, SAF manufacturers, Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), FPOs, and technology providers can help mitigate initial risks and drive progress in SAF implementation. Additionally, as outlined in the report, financial incentives such as Production Linked Incentives (PLI), viability gap funding, tax breaks, and interest subventions will be essential to catalyse investments for SAF adoption.

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