The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has entered its fifth day, plunging the Middle East into heightened volatility. As both nations continue to exchange missile fire, Iran has reportedly expressed readiness to de-escalate the conflict and return to nuclear negotiations, but with a crucial condition—the United States must not intervene militarily in support of Israel.

According to a report from The Wall Street Journal, Iran has conveyed this message through Arab intermediaries, reaching out to both Israel and the United States. The communication reportedly includes appeals to contain the conflict and prevent further escalation, highlighting the mutual benefits of de-escalation.

Diplomatic Backchannel: Iran's Proposal Through Arab Nations

The truce overture comes amid the worst military confrontation in years between the two archrivals. Iranian officials reportedly informed intermediaries in Gulf countries that Tehran would agree to resume discussions on its nuclear programme—a reference to the now-defunct Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). However, Tehran insists the US refrain from taking part in the military escalation, even if it continues supporting Israel politically or logistically.

This conditional diplomacy, while a step toward peace, reflects Iran’s distrust of direct US involvement, particularly after the collapse of the JCPOA following Washington’s unilateral withdrawal in 2018 under then-President Donald Trump.

War Escalation: Day Five of Armed Hostilities

Tuesday marked day five of the Israel-Iran war, with active missile exchanges and increasing civilian casualties. Tensions dramatically intensified following Israel's Operation Rising Lion, a large-scale preemptive strike targeting Iranian nuclear infrastructure on June 13, 2025.

Following the offensive, Iran launched retaliatory missile barrages, hitting multiple targets in Israel, including Tel Aviv, where air raid sirens and explosions were reported shortly after midnight. Conversely, Iranian cities like Tehran and Natanz—the latter being a key nuclear facility—witnessed explosions and anti-aircraft fire, as Israeli missiles breached Iranian airspace.

Civilian Toll and Humanitarian Concerns

The ongoing conflict has already led to significant loss of life:

• Iran has reported 224 fatalities, mostly civilian casualties, with urban infrastructure severely damaged in Tehran, Natanz, and other strategic zones.

• Israel has recorded 24 civilian deaths, and nearly 3,000 residents have been evacuated from areas affected by Iranian missile strikes, according to Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

Global humanitarian organisations have called for urgent de-escalation and humanitarian access to the affected areas.

Trump's Reaction and JCPOA Implications

Former President Donald Trump, in a message posted on his Truth Social platform, delivered a stern warning to Iran, stating:

“Iran should have signed the 'deal' I told them to sign. What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON.”

Trump also called on all civilians to evacuate Tehran, citing the dangers of continued conflict. In response to the rapidly evolving situation, the White House announced that Trump would leave the G7 summit in Canada early to convene a meeting of the National Security Council.

Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron said Trump's move could help facilitate a ceasefire, reflecting growing international urgency to resolve the escalating crisis.

Operation Rising Lion: Israel’s Preemptive Strategy

Israel's surprise military campaign, Operation Rising Lion, was reportedly aimed at crippling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and preventing weaponisation. The strike came just days before previously scheduled US-Iran negotiations were supposed to resume. Israeli officials maintain that Iran poses a direct threat and that the operation was essential to national security.

Iran has denied any intentions to develop nuclear weapons, insisting that its nuclear program is strictly civilian in nature.

Global Diplomacy: Revival of the JCPOA?

The renewed confrontation threatens to further derail the already fragile diplomatic efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear accord, which involved Iran and the E3 bloc (France, Germany, and the UK). The JCPOA was originally aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear capabilities in exchange for lifting economic sanctions.

Following Trump’s 2018 withdrawal, the deal has remained in limbo, with multiple attempts at revival faltering over verification protocols, uranium enrichment levels, and Western sanctions.

European leaders and UN officials are now scrambling to prevent a full-scale regional war, and there are rumblings of backdoor diplomacy involving Gulf nations, who may act as mediators.

Strategic Significance of Natanz and Tel Aviv

The inclusion of Natanz in the military targets underscores the high stakes involved. Natanz is central to Iran’s uranium enrichment and is monitored by international watchdogs such as the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency).

Simultaneously, Tel Aviv, Israel’s financial and tech hub, faced missile attacks that rattled civilian morale and triggered widespread evacuations and emergency responses.

Gulf States' Role: Potential Mediators?

Analysts believe that Gulf nations like Oman, Qatar, and the UAE may be instrumental in mediating between Iran and Israel. These countries have historically played neutral roles in past Iran-US dialogues and are currently receptive to regional stability due to their economic and geopolitical interests.

The Iranian outreach to these states is seen as a deliberate move to reopen diplomatic backchannels, particularly after direct diplomacy between Iran and Western nations reached an impasse.

Military Posturing and Regional Fallout

Both Israel and Iran are now in full-scale war readiness, with troop mobilisations, cyber warfare, and further missile strikes expected. Neighbouring countries are watching closely as tensions threaten to spill over, potentially drawing in regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt.

There is also growing concern over the impact on global oil supply, given the strategic location of the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of the world’s petroleum passes.

Conclusion: Truce or Escalation?

The conflict between Israel and Iran, while presently constrained to missile exchanges and airstrikes, has the potential to spiral into a broader regional war. Iran’s offer to resume nuclear talks and end hostilities—provided the US stays out of the military aspect—presents a possible exit ramp.

However, the situation remains extremely fragile, with both sides accusing the other of aggression and duplicity. The next few days will be crucial in determining whether diplomacy prevails or war escalates.

As Tehran signals a truce conditional on American restraint, the international community watches with bated breath. If diplomacy fails, the world could be on the brink of a new and more devastating conflict in the Middle East.

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