After months of brutal fighting, the Israel-Lebanon conflict has entered a new phase with the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. The ceasefire, brokered by the United States and France, took effect on Wednesday at 0200 GMT (7:30 AM IST), marking a potential end to the deadly clashes along the Israeli-Lebanese border that have killed thousands. The deal aims to bring about a halt to hostilities that were intensified following the Gaza war last year. However, while the ceasefire is in place, there are important elements and conditions that could determine its long-term success.

Key Elements of the Ceasefire Agreement

Halt to Hostilities

The ceasefire calls for an immediate halt to hostilities by both sides, starting from Wednesday morning. According to US President Joe Biden, Israel will cease military operations against Lebanon, including both civilian and military targets, and will not conduct further strikes against Lebanese state institutions. Similarly, Hezbollah and its allies in Lebanon have agreed to stop their operations against Israel, marking a significant reduction in violence along the border.

Israeli Troop Withdrawal

One of the most crucial provisions of the ceasefire is the gradual withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon. According to Israeli officials, the withdrawal will take place over the next 60 days, though there is hope in Lebanon that the pullback will occur within the first month. The deal allows civilians on both sides of the border to return to their homes after being displaced due to the fighting, especially from southern Lebanon, which has seen widespread damage.

Hezbollah’s Withdrawal and the Lebanese Army Deployment

As part of the ceasefire, Hezbollah fighters will withdraw north of the Litani River, about 30 km from the Israeli border. The fighters will not leave publicly, and there are no details yet on how Hezbollah’s military infrastructure will be dismantled. However, Lebanese military forces will deploy to southern Lebanon to take over security and maintain peace, with around 5,000 soldiers stationed at various posts along the border.

The deployment of the Lebanese Army is considered a key challenge, as they will need to handle unexploded ordnance and manage the return of displaced civilians who had fled to safer areas during the conflict.

Monitoring Mechanism

One of the most critical aspects of ensuring the ceasefire holds is the monitoring mechanism. The agreement includes an expanded version of the pre-existing tripartite monitoring mechanism that involves the United Nations peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon (UNIFIL), the Lebanese Army, and the Israeli Army. The United States will chair this expanded monitoring group, which will also include France. This mechanism is designed to track any potential violations of the ceasefire and address issues as they arise. Both the US and France have committed to working together to ensure full compliance with the agreement.

Israeli Right to Self-Defense

Despite the ceasefire, Israel retains the right to strike Lebanon if it detects any security threats, particularly in relation to Hezbollah’s military activities. If Hezbollah continues to build up its military capabilities or attempts to smuggle weapons, Israel can respond with military action. Israeli officials emphasized that the US brokered assurances to Prime Minister Netanyahu that Israel would not be restricted from defending itself.

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In a televised address, Netanyahu reiterated that Israel would not hesitate to strike if Hezbollah violated the terms of the ceasefire. While Hezbollah's military positions will be dismantled, Israel will continue to use drones to monitor the area for any suspicious activity.

What’s Next for the Region?

The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah brings hope for stability but does not guarantee lasting peace. The Lebanese people, especially those in southern Lebanon, will have to deal with the aftermath of the conflict, including the destruction and the challenge of rebuilding. Hezbollah's adherence to the ceasefire and the Lebanese Army's ability to manage the security situation will be crucial in determining whether peace can be sustained in the region.

As of now, the international community, including the UN, remains hopeful that the ceasefire will pave the way for a more permanent peace between Israel and Lebanon, though skepticism about its durability remains, given the complex nature of the conflict and the involvement of various regional powers.

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