The apple industry in Jammu and Kashmir is facing a moment of deep uncertainty. Recent trade agreements signed by India with the United States and the European Union have sparked serious concerns among apple growers, traders, and political leaders in the Union Territory. Many fear that reduced import duties on foreign apples could impact prices, incomes, and the overall health of the horticulture sector in Kashmir.

The issue has become a major political and economic debate in the region. Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah and Leader of the Opposition Mehbooba Mufti have both described the India–U.S. trade deal as a serious threat to the apple economy of Kashmir. They argue that the reduction in customs duties on imported apples may act as a death blow to a sector that sustains lakhs of families.

To understand why apple traders are worried, it is important to look at the structure of the new trade deals, the importance of apple farming in J and K, and the competitive advantages enjoyed by Western countries.

What Has Changed in the Trade Policy?

Under the India–U.S. trade deal, the Indian government reduced the basic customs duty on apples imported from the United States from 50 percent to 25 percent. At the same time, a Minimum Import Price (MIP) of ₹80 per kilogram has been fixed. This means imported apples cannot be sold below that base price, in theory to protect domestic producers.

In addition, under the new India–European Union trade agreement, import duty on fresh fruits has been reduced to 20 percent under a Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) system. Initially, only 50,000 tonnes of apples per year will be allowed from the EU at the reduced rate. Over the next 10 years, this quota will gradually increase to 1,00,000 tonnes annually.

The government’s logic is that the TRQ system prevents sudden flooding of the Indian market. However, apple traders in Kashmir argue that even limited imports at lower duty can affect prices in wholesale markets, especially during peak harvest season.

Why Apple Production Is So Important in J and K

According to the J and K Economic Survey 2025-26, apple production makes up nearly 50 percent of total horticulture output in the Union Territory. This shows how central apples are to the regional economy.

The horticulture sector generates roughly ₹10,000 crore in annual revenue and employs around 35 lakh individuals, directly or indirectly. It supports nearly seven lakh families. These numbers highlight why even small changes in market conditions can have wide social and economic impact.

In districts such as Shopian, Baramulla, Pulwama and Kupwara, apple orchards dominate the landscape. Many small farmers own just one to two hectares of land. Their entire yearly income depends on the price their produce fetches in mandis across India.

If prices fall due to cheaper imports, their earnings can decline sharply.

Why Producers Fear Cheaper Imports

The main concern of growers is simple: price competition.

Imported apples from the United States and European countries are often perceived as premium products. They are uniform in size, colour, and packaging. With lower import duties, these apples may become more affordable in Indian cities like Delhi, Mumbai, and Bengaluru.

Traders worry that wholesalers and retailers may prefer imported apples if the price gap narrows. Even if imported apples remain slightly more expensive, their attractive packaging and consistent quality may influence buyers.

Farmers argue that the ₹80 per kilogram Minimum Import Price may not be enough to protect them. During peak harvest, local apple prices can fall below that level due to oversupply and limited storage.

Why Western Countries Get Better Apple Yields

Another major concern relates to productivity.

Countries in the West, including the United States and several EU nations, use advanced orchard management techniques. These include:

• High-density plantation systems

• Mechanised pruning and harvesting

• Scientific pest control

• Efficient irrigation methods

• Better varieties developed through research

These methods result in higher yield per hectare compared to many orchards in Kashmir. While traditional orchards in J and K may produce 8 to 12 tonnes per hectare, high-density orchards in Western countries can produce much more.

Moreover, Western countries benefit from large-scale mechanisation, which reduces labour cost and improves efficiency.

Controlled Atmosphere Cold Storage: A Key Factor

Storage plays a critical role in apple marketing.

In the U.S. and EU, farmers have access to modern controlled atmosphere (CA) cold storage facilities. These facilities regulate temperature, oxygen, and carbon dioxide levels, allowing apples to remain fresh for several months without losing quality.

While J and K has increased its cold storage capacity in recent years, the cost of storage remains high. Small farmers often cannot afford long-term storage and are forced to sell their produce quickly after harvest.

If imported apples arrive at times when local farmers are compelled to sell at low prices, the competition can become severe.

Traders point out that CA storage charges in Kashmir can significantly reduce farmers’ margins. Without affordable and widespread storage, local producers struggle to time the market effectively.

Political Reaction in Jammu and Kashmir

Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has publicly raised concerns about the impact of the trade deal. He emphasised that the horticulture sector is the backbone of the region’s rural economy.

Similarly, Mehbooba Mufti has urged the Union government to reconsider aspects of the agreement. She argued that policy decisions taken at the national level must account for the vulnerabilities of specific regions.

Both leaders have called for protective measures, including stronger safeguards under the Minimum Import Price system and enhanced support for local growers.

Are the Fears Justified?

Economists offer mixed views.

Some believe the impact may be limited because:

• The EU quota is capped at 50,000 tonnes initially.

• The MIP of ₹80 per kilogram may prevent undercutting.

• Imported apples usually cater to premium urban markets.

However, others argue that even psychological impact on markets can push prices down. Traders may negotiate harder with local farmers, citing availability of imports.

The long-term concern is the gradual increase in EU quota to 1,00,000 tonnes over 10 years. Farmers fear that once imports increase steadily, it may become difficult to reverse the policy.

The Broader Trade Context

India’s trade agreements aim to expand exports, attract investment, and strengthen global partnerships. In negotiations, market access is often a two-way process. While India opens its market to certain imports, it expects better access for its own goods abroad.

However, local sectors like apple farming often feel vulnerable when facing international competition.

Balancing global trade commitments with local economic protection is always a delicate task.

Economic and Social Impact

If apple prices decline significantly, the impact may go beyond individual farmers.

Reduced income can affect:

• Rural spending power

• Employment in transport and packaging

• Commission agents and mandi workers

• Small-scale cold storage operators

In regions where alternative employment opportunities are limited, horticulture acts as an economic lifeline.

Steps That Could Help

Experts suggest several measures to strengthen the competitiveness of J and K apple growers:

1. Expansion of high-density plantations

2. Improved access to affordable CA storage

3. Better grading, sorting, and branding

4. Promotion of Kashmir apples in international markets

5. Subsidies for technology adoption

If productivity increases and supply chains improve, local apples can compete more effectively, even in an open market.

The Way Forward

The debate over the India–U.S. and India–EU trade deals reflects a larger question: how should India balance global integration with local protection?

For Jammu and Kashmir, apples are not just a crop. They represent employment, stability, and identity.

While the trade agreements include safeguards like the TRQ system and MIP, apple traders remain cautious. They want clearer assurances that their livelihoods will not suffer.

As discussions continue, policymakers will need to closely monitor market trends, price movements, and farmer incomes.

The coming harvest seasons will likely determine whether fears turn into reality or whether local growers adapt successfully to the new competitive environment.

One thing is clear: the apple economy of Jammu and Kashmir stands at a critical crossroads. Decisions taken today will shape the future of lakhs of farmers and families who depend on this vital sector.

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