Tokyo, July 18, 2025:
Japan is grappling with a massive spike in rice prices, which soared by 99.2% in June year-on-year, according to official data released on Friday. The soaring cost of Japan’s most essential staple is adding political pressure on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, whose public support has plunged ahead of this Sunday’s crucial upper house elections.

The alarming price hike follows earlier surges in rice inflation:

• 101% in May

• 98.4% in April

• 92.5% in March

The continued escalation has turned the kitchen table issue of food inflation into a central election concern.

Rising Cost of Living Undermines PM Ishiba

The data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs points to broader economic dissatisfaction in Japan. Though overall core inflation—which excludes fresh food prices—slowed to 3.3% in June, down from 3.7% in May, that hasn’t comforted ordinary citizens grappling with skyrocketing grocery bills.

“The price of rice is symbolic. It’s about more than food—it’s about security, culture, and fairness. People feel like the government isn’t listening,” said a Tokyo-based political analyst.

Adding to the crisis is the fact that PM Shigeru Ishiba’s administration is battling corruption allegations within the ruling party. Recent scandals involving top officials have eroded public trust, compounding the backlash from inflation.

A Perfect Storm Before the Ballot

Polls indicate that public support for Ishiba’s government is at its lowest since he assumed office in 2024. With election day for the upper house set for Sunday, political observers suggest the ruling coalition risks losing its majority—a result that could reshape Japan’s legislative landscape.

The opposition parties have aggressively campaigned on the theme of “economic justice”, accusing Ishiba’s government of failing to control inflation and protect vulnerable citizens.

Meanwhile, the Prime Minister has defended his administration’s policies, blaming the inflation largely on supply chain issues, international grain price fluctuations, and weather disruptions.

But many citizens remain unconvinced.

“I don’t buy imported rice. I buy local rice, and it’s still double the price. What’s going on?” asked Keiko Yamazaki, a homemaker in Osaka.

Core Inflation Eases, But Not Enough

According to the report released by the Internal Affairs Ministry:

• Core consumer prices (excluding fresh food): +3.3% in June

• Consumer prices excluding both energy and fresh food: +3.4%, up slightly from May's 3.3%

While the central bank and fiscal policymakers have pointed to this deceleration as a sign that inflation is stabilizing, the public perception tells a different story—particularly around essentials like rice, vegetables, and daily-use groceries.

Scandals in the Ruling Party Deepen Crisis

Further fueling public discontent are fresh corruption scandals involving senior officials from the ruling party. Allegations include misuse of funds, favouritism in agricultural subsidies, and failure to declare assets, all of which have surfaced in the weeks leading up to the election.

For many Japanese voters, it’s a breaking point.

“It’s not just the rice. It’s the whole attitude of this government,” said a university student protester at a recent rally in Fukuoka. “We need change.”

Opposition Parties Smell Opportunity

The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), along with smaller opposition blocs, have framed the election as a referendum on Ishiba’s leadership. Their campaign messaging highlights how the ruling coalition has failed to protect household savings, food affordability, and economic dignity.

They are also pledging reforms such as:

• Price stabilization schemes for essential goods,

• Greater subsidies for domestic agriculture, and

• Transparency in political funding.

With voter turnout expected to be high, particularly among younger voters and urban households, the election could see a significant rebalancing of political power in the upper house.

Conclusion: A Tense Weekend Ahead for Japan

As the Japanese prepare to cast their ballots this weekend, rising rice prices have become more than just an economic statistic—they have emerged as a powerful symbol of political and social discontent.

Prime Minister Ishiba now faces the toughest political test of his tenure, and Sunday’s outcome will likely determine not just the future of his government, but also the broader direction of economic policy, public trust, and inflation control in Japan.

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