The once-promising transformation of Kashmir’s apple industry, through the introduction of high-density apple orchards, is now facing a harsh reality. Back-to-back dry winters, record-low precipitation, and dwindling water resources have created a dire situation for growers across the Valley, threatening both livelihoods and the economy.

A Game-Changing Initiative Under Threat

Introduced in 2015-16, high-density apple orchards were seen as a revolution in Kashmir’s horticulture sector. Compared to traditional trees that take up to 15 years to bear fruit, high-density varieties like Jeromine, King Roat, Gala Scarlet, and Auvi Fuji begin yielding produce within 1-2 years and reach full maturity by the fourth or fifth year. This approach not only offered higher yields per acre but also aligned with the government’s strategy to boost horticulture’s share in the GDP and provide local employment.

However, the higher productivity of these trees comes with a price—they demand consistent and adequate irrigation, especially during critical pre-harvest months. And this is precisely where the problem lies today.

Water Crisis Deepens with Each Passing Year

This winter, apple growers across Kashmir reported that bore wells, tube wells, streams, and springs—their primary water sources—had dried up completely. Even iconic water bodies like the Achabal Mughal Garden spring in Anantnag ran dry for the first time in history.

The situation is exacerbated by the Jhelum River, the lifeline of Kashmir’s agriculture, now flowing below its reduced zero level, according to the Kashmir Flood Watch division of the Irrigation and Flood Control Department.

Staggering Rainfall Deficits Across Kashmir

The J&K Meteorological Department revealed that January and February—critical months for snow and rain—witnessed a 79% shortfall in precipitation, receiving just a fraction of the usual 140 mm. Similarly, the period between June and September 25, 2023, saw a 35% rainfall deficit.

Districts like Shopian, often referred to as the “apple town of Kashmir,” recorded an 81% shortfall, with only 352.7 mm of rainfall compared to the normal 542.7 mm. This long-term trend, say weather analysts, is a consequence of climate change, which has brought five consecutive years of below-normal precipitation to the region.

Climate Change’s Mounting Impact on Apples

Kashmir’s climate is ideal for apples primarily due to its chilling hours and snowfall, which promote bud formation and retain essential soil moisture. However, snowfall has been missing or minimal in recent years. Snow also prevents diseases and supports healthy root growth.

With the 2024 precipitation total at 870.9 mm, marking a 29% deficit, the Valley is experiencing its driest year since 1974. The consistent decline in rainfall—7% in 2023, 16% in 2022, 28% in 2021, and 20% in 2020—clearly indicates a deepening crisis.

Drip Irrigation Not Enough Amid Prolonged Dry Spells

While farmers have invested in drip irrigation systems, these methods rely heavily on groundwater, snowmelt, and consistent rainfall. In the absence of all three, the systems have failed to deliver. The critical pre-harvest period demands precise watering schedules—any delay or inadequacy leads to smaller fruits, poor ripening, and increased susceptibility to disease and pests.

Economic Devastation Looms for Farmers

As many as seven lakh families in Jammu and Kashmir rely on apple farming—either directly or indirectly. The extended dry winter, coupled with crop failures, has thrown thousands into financial uncertainty.

Many farmers have taken loans to switch to high-density orchards, as the transition involves significant costs in plant material, imported saplings, and drip infrastructure. With crop quality and quantity dwindling, the burden of repayments without returns has become unbearable.

Apple Quality Takes a Hit

Growers from North and South Kashmir reported a sharp decline in fruit quality last season. The apples were less juicy, had more surface scalds, and showed early signs of pest infestations. These symptoms, say scientists at Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology (SKUAST), are due to lack of soil moisture and plant stress—conditions that allow pathogens to thrive.

Harvest Delays and Reduced Yields

Last year’s low rainfall before harvest delayed picking by weeks, leading to disruption in the supply chain, loss of market value, and storage issues. These disruptions ultimately lowered profits for both growers and traders, rippling through the Rs 8,000-crore apple industry.

Government’s Plantation Targets Face Setback

The J&K Government, under its modified plantation scheme, aims to convert 5,500 hectares of land into high-density apple orchards by 2026. While this could boost horticulture’s current 9.5% contribution to GDP, the vision seems threatened by climate volatility and unreliable water availability.

Farmers Demand Immediate Intervention

Many farmers are now urging the government to roll out relief packages, offer loan waivers, and implement long-term water conservation strategies, including:

• Building check dams and reservoirs

• Promoting rainwater harvesting

• Reviving traditional water bodies

• Launching awareness campaigns about climate-resilient agriculture

The call for sustainable policy frameworks is urgent and necessary to preserve Kashmir’s apple economy and protect lakhs of livelihoods.

Conclusion: A Fragile Future for Kashmir’s Apples

The crisis gripping Kashmir’s high-density apple orchards is a glaring indicator of climate change’s real-time impact. Without immediate government intervention, robust climate adaptation strategies, and investment in water infrastructure, the dream of a modernized horticulture sector may wither on the vine.

As Kashmir’s skies stay clear and its rivers run dry, the future of its apples—and the families who cultivate them—hangs precariously in the balance.

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