Indian equities are poised for a muted start on Wednesday, April 30, after a robust recovery that saw benchmark indices Nifty 50 and Sensex surge nearly 10% from their monthly lows. However, as bulls take a breather, the near-term trend looks range-bound with cautious undertones.

At 7:45 am, the GIFT Nifty futures were trading around 75 points lower, indicating a likely negative opening for the Indian market. This follows a week where despite strong April gains, the indices have remained sideways in recent sessions.

Global Cues: Wall Street Gains, Crude and Gold Decline

The overnight performance of US markets showed modest gains across the board. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.75%, the S&P 500 rose 0.58%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.55%. These gains came amid mixed signals — on one hand, better-than-expected corporate earnings; on the other, concerns over global economic slowdown and recessionary risks.

At the same time, crude oil and gold prices slipped, reflecting a cooling of investor demand for safe havens, possibly due to easing tensions in US-China tariff negotiations.

Asian Market Trends: Mixed Cues from Regional Markets

Asian equity markets mirrored the uncertainty. While Japanese and Taiwanese markets were seen trading with mild gains, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong dropped by half a percent.

The broader sentiment remained cautiously optimistic, especially with the S&P 500 in the US logging a sixth consecutive session of gains. This positive streak reflects market belief that major companies can weather slowing global growth and trade disruptions.

Domestic Market Performance: Consolidation and Border Tension Caution

In the previous trading session, the Indian stock market was largely range-bound, with investors maintaining a cautious stance, partly due to geopolitical tensions near the Indian border. The mood was restrained despite the recent bullish trend.

Analysts believe that this consolidation phase is a healthy pause, allowing the market to digest recent gains and potentially prepare for another upward move if the global and domestic cues turn favorable.

Technical Outlook by Kotak Securities

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, shared insights on near-term levels for Nifty:

• Immediate breakout resistance is seen at 24,450.
  A decisive move above this level could trigger a fresh rally towards 24,550-24,600.

• On the downside, support is placed at 24,250.
  A fall below 24,250 could see selling pressure intensify, potentially dragging the index down to 24,150-24,100.

He further added that minor pullbacks towards support zones should be considered buying opportunities, implying that the broader market uptrend may remain intact despite short-term corrections.

Investor Strategy: Buy on Dips with Caution

Given the market's recent performance, investors are advised to stay cautious but optimistic. With US and Asian markets giving mixed signals, and technical resistance near current levels, it's critical to watch for clear breakouts or breakdowns.

• Traders may look for entry points near support zones, especially if volume patterns confirm strength.

• It’s equally important to keep strict stop-loss levels if the market breaks below 24,250.

• Earnings season and macro signals such as interest rate outlook, inflation, and geopolitical risks will play key roles in determining the next move.

Global Factors to Monitor

• US macroeconomic indicators, including jobs data and inflation reports, will influence FII behavior.

• Crude oil movement due to Middle East tensions or OPEC policy changes could impact energy-related stocks and inflation-sensitive sectors.

• China’s policy on tariffs and export restrictions also needs close monitoring, as it can impact sentiment in emerging markets like India.

Summary

While the Indian stock market has delivered strong performance through April, a short-term pause or consolidation is likely as indicated by GIFT Nifty trends and range-bound global cues. Investors should adopt a balanced approach, eyeing technical support levels and macro indicators for cues. Bullish sentiment remains intact, but the upside may be limited in the near term unless fresh triggers emerge.

The Upcoming IPOs in this week and coming weeks are  Wagons Learning, Srigee DLM, Manoj Jewellers.

The Current active IPO are Kenrik Industries,Arunaya Organics, Ather Energy, Iware Supplychain Services.

Start your Stock Market Journey and Apply in IPO by Opening Free Demat Account in Choice Broking FinX.

Join our Trading with CA Abhay Telegram Channel for regular Stock Market Trading and Investment Calls by CA Abhay Varn - SEBI Registered Research Analyst.