Understanding China's Rise through Southeast Asian Eyes

A new book titled In the Dragon's Shadow by journalist Sebastian Strangio offers a timely and compelling exploration of how China's growing assertiveness is being perceived and resisted across Southeast Asia. The region, home to 11 diverse nations—Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, East Timor, and the Philippines—is increasingly finding itself caught in the strategic contest between the United States and China.

Strangio’s book delves into decades of historical and geopolitical shifts, showing how China, once alienated from many of its neighbours during Mao Zedong’s rule, began re-engaging diplomatically and economically with the region in the late 1970s. This re-engagement laid the groundwork for modern infrastructure investments and military assertiveness, especially under the leadership of President Xi Jinping.

From Reconciliation to Reassertion

Following Mao’s death in 1976, China tried to rebuild relations with Southeast Asia. In 1980, it passed a nationality law revoking dual citizenship, easing suspicion among neighbouring countries about Beijing’s intentions. This move also catalysed overseas investment from ethnic Chinese—especially those in Hong Kong and Taiwan—into China’s burgeoning economy.

However, in the 21st century, these reconciliatory efforts have morphed into something more controversial. There is growing international concern that China is trying to mobilise overseas Chinese communities to further the aims of the Communist Party of China (CPC). These concerns intensified in 2018 when China brought the Overseas Chinese Affairs Office under the party’s central control, aligning it with departments that traditionally manage foreign influence operations.

Not All Outreach Is Welcome

Despite China's outreach, the results have not been universally favourable. Across Southeast Asia, reactions to China’s engagement have varied. Protests and backlash have occurred in response to:

• Infrastructure projects that disrupt local economies or ecosystems

• Diversion of water resources from the Mekong and other critical rivers

• Aggressive maritime activities in the South China Sea

While many of these initiatives were initially framed under the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), they have faced criticism for fostering debt dependency and lacking transparency.

The South China Sea Flashpoint

A pivotal focus of Strangio’s book—and one of the most enduring challenges for Southeast Asian nations—is China’s maritime claims in the South China Sea. These claims, based on the so-called Nine-Dash Line, overlap with the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of several Southeast Asian countries.

One of the most telling examples of resistance comes from Vietnam. Despite being a former ally of China during wars against French and American forces, Vietnam has pushed back against Chinese encroachments:

• In 1979, China invaded Vietnam for a month after Vietnam ousted the Chinese-backed Khmer Rouge in Cambodia.

• In 2014, China placed a deep-water oil rig near the Paracel Islands, within Vietnam’s EEZ. The incident triggered massive anti-China protests in Vietnam and eventually led to the removal of the rig.

This episode illustrates that not all countries in China’s orbit are passive. Vietnam has stood up to Beijing when its sovereignty is threatened, setting an example that others in the region have closely watched.

ASEAN as a Buffer

As tensions grow, regional groupings like the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are becoming increasingly crucial. Many ASEAN members want to avoid choosing sides between China and the US. Instead, they seek a neutral, multilateral approach that allows them to safeguard their interests without jeopardising key economic or security partnerships.

In fact, ASEAN has been receptive to India’s Act East Policy, which offers an alternative regional framework that supports inclusivity and multipolar cooperation.

China’s Diplomatic Countermoves

China is not ignoring this diplomatic recalibration. In a recent show of soft power, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited five Southeast Asian nations in a single week, hoping to reinforce ties and promote “multilateralism”—a term often used to blunt perceptions of unilateral aggression. This came shortly after the United States signed a strategic pact with several Indo-Pacific nations, clearly showing how intense the diplomatic competition in the region has become.

What Does the Future Hold?

While China is not necessarily trying to completely replace US-led institutions, it is undeniably attempting to regain the influence it held before the so-called “century of humiliation” in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Under Xi Jinping’s leadership, this ambition has been described as achieving the “Chinese Dream”—a vision of national rejuvenation and regional centrality.

However, anti-China sentiment is rising, fuelled by territorial disputes, economic anxieties, and concerns about the erosion of sovereignty. This sentiment is no longer confined to outspoken nations like Vietnam and the Philippines—it is growing even in traditionally quiet corners like Laos and Cambodia, long considered China’s political allies.

Conclusion: Reading Between the Lines of Power

Sebastian Strangio’s In the Dragon’s Shadow offers a nuanced and well-researched narrative of China’s evolving relationship with Southeast Asia. It’s not just a story of expansion—it’s also a story of how smaller nations adapt, resist, or accommodate a superpower’s rise.

The region remains a hotbed of strategic complexity, with China’s ambitions clashing with the region’s desire for autonomy, and external powers like the US and India offering counterweights to Beijing’s influence.

For anyone seeking to understand the future of Asia-Pacific geopolitics, this book is not just timely—it is essential reading

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