As Bihar's 2025 elections draw closer, the political landscape is shifting, with a C-Voter survey indicating a major drop in Nitish Kumar’s popularity, despite him being the state's longest-serving Chief Minister. The survey, which tracks trends leading to the Bihar Assembly Elections, revealed that while Nitish Kumar has been at the helm for the past decade, he is no longer the top choice to be the next Bihar CM.

Changing Political Preferences

According to the C-Voter survey, Tejashwi Yadav, the leader of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), continues to be the most preferred candidate for the Chief Minister's post, though his popularity has also seen a slight dip. In February 2025, Tejashwi’s preference stood at 40.6%, but by April, it dropped to 35.5%.

However, the bigger story is the rise of Prashant Kishor, the political strategist-turned-politician, whose newly launched party Jan Suraaj has seen an uptick in popularity. Kishor gained 2.3% support, increasing from 14.9% to 17.2% in just two months, indicating a significant shift in voter sentiment.

The ranking is as follows for the most preferred Bihar CM candidates:

Factors Behind the Shifting Popularity

Nitish Kumar’s Decline

The survey reflects a decline in Nitish Kumar's popularity, with his support dropping by 3% — from 18.4% in February to 15.4% in April 2025. Political analyst Yashwant Deshmukh, the founder of C-Voter, offered several reasons for this drop:

1. NDA Alliance Uncertainty: There has been no official announcement of a NDA CM face, which has led to the emergence of potential BJP leaders, such as Samrat Chaudhary and Chirag Paswan, in the mix. The NDA, consisting of JD(U) and BJP, is likely to contest the Bihar elections together, but the lack of clarity on leadership has reduced Nitish Kumar's appeal.

2. Health Concerns: Nitish Kumar’s health has been a matter of concern, and this uncertainty has led to a sense of passivity among voters.

3. Frequent Alliance Changes: Nitish Kumar has been criticized for his frequent “pendulum swings” in alliances over the last 10 years, undermining his credibility and popularity. These shifts have alienated some voters who once supported him across party lines.

Tejashwi Yadav’s Slight Decline

Despite Tejashwi Yadav retaining the top spot in the CM race, his popularity also saw a slight dip — from 40.6% in February to 35.5% in April. According to Deshmukh, this could be attributed to the growing aggression from Congress in Bihar and the lack of a full-blown election campaign by the RJD thus far. This has opened a window of opportunity for other candidates like Prashant Kishor to gain ground.

Prashant Kishor's Rise

Prashant Kishor, who recently launched Jan Suraaj, has taken advantage of the political vacuum created by Nitish Kumar’s declining popularity and Tejashwi Yadav’s stagnation. Deshmukh pointed out that Kishor’s rise in popularity might not immediately translate into votes or seats, but his party is expected to attract candidates who are unable to secure tickets from established alliances like NDA or INDIA.

Kishor's Jan Suraaj will contest the elections across all 243 assembly seats, and although it is still early to predict its success, the increase in Kishor's popularity reflects the electorate's discontent with traditional leaders.

Conclusion

With six months left for the 2025 Bihar Assembly Elections, the race for the Chief Minister's post is heating up. While Tejashwi Yadav remains the preferred choice for now, Prashant Kishor’s rise and Nitish Kumar’s decline point to the shifting dynamics in Bihar politics. As the election date approaches, these changes in voter sentiment will undoubtedly play a pivotal role in shaping the outcome of the election.

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