In a significant move amid rising geopolitical tensions, India’s National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval is in Moscow, holding high-level discussions with Russian officials on strategic cooperation, energy security, and defence partnerships. The visit comes at a critical time when former U.S. President Donald Trump has issued fresh warnings of sanctions on countries—including India—that continue importing oil from Russia.

The diplomatic engagement is also part of preparations for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s upcoming visit to India later this year, and closely follows recent escalations in Western criticism of India’s trade ties with Moscow.

Strategic timing: Moscow visit amid US pressure

NSA Doval’s trip is being viewed as a strategic reaffirmation of India’s deep-rooted ties with Russia, especially in the defence and energy sectors. His visit comes within days of Trump’s public comments warning India to “choose between the free world and authoritarian oil”, in reference to continued Russian oil purchases.

Doval met with top Russian security officials, including Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of Russia’s Security Council, to review bilateral defence mechanisms, technology collaborations, and counterterrorism efforts.

Sources say the agenda included updates on the India-Russia Intergovernmental Commission on Military-Technical Cooperation, with both nations reaffirming their commitment to long-term defence projects, including licensed manufacturing and joint innovation in AI-based surveillance and missile technologies.

Trump’s threats raise heat on Indian oil diplomacy

Former U.S. President Donald Trump—who is also the leading Republican candidate for the 2026 elections—renewed pressure on India for its continued Russian oil imports, saying “India should not be let off the hook” while China, Iran, and others face tariff and sanction regimes.

India has consistently defended its energy policy as a matter of national interest and affordability, with over 35% of its crude oil now coming from Russia, significantly cheaper than Western suppliers.

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, who is also expected to travel to Moscow in the coming weeks, has repeatedly stated that India is committed to energy diversification but will not succumb to external pressures.

In his previous remarks, Jaishankar said, “Europe continues to import Russian energy. Why should India be singled out? We will do what is necessary to protect our economy and our people.”

Putin’s visit to deepen India-Russia ties

President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit India before the end of 2025, marking a continuation of the annual India-Russia summit tradition that has remained steady despite the Ukraine conflict and global realignment.

The Kremlin has confirmed that energy security, multilateral platforms like BRICS, and a rupee-rouble payment mechanism will be high on the agenda.

Russia is reportedly keen to expand its defence exports and co-development efforts with India, especially given the country’s recent ban on arms exports to several NATO-backed governments.

Doval’s visit is also seen as a preparatory move to fine-tune deliverables before Putin’s trip, particularly around nuclear energy collaboration, Arctic exploration partnerships, and new cyber cooperation agreements.

India’s balancing act between East and West

India finds itself at the centre of a delicate geopolitical balancing act—maintaining close defence and energy ties with Russia, while also building a critical strategic partnership with the United States.

This has become even more complicated as Trump’s potential return to the White House in 2026 looms, raising fears of a renewed era of sanctions and transactional diplomacy.

Officials in New Delhi have emphasized that India’s foreign policy is guided by strategic autonomy and not by pressure from any bloc or country.

“We engage with all global powers, but on our own terms. India is not a client state, it is a sovereign player,” said a senior MEA official on condition of anonymity.

Why the Russian oil matters to India

Since the war in Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions on Russian oil by the West, India has emerged as a top buyer of Russian crude, often availing deep discounts and paying via alternative banking channels to bypass Western financial systems.

The import of Russian oil has helped contain inflation in India, support fuel subsidies, and strengthen the rupee's exchange reserves.

Even as G7 countries have tried to impose price caps and restrictions on third-party dealings, India has maintained that such limits are not legally binding, and continues to negotiate directly with Russian state-owned oil firms like Rosneft and Gazprom.

With Trump’s threats, however, questions are emerging about India’s long-term energy security framework and whether New Delhi will need to hedge its bets through diversified sourcing or digital currency-based transactions in future.

China factor and global realignments

Another driver of India’s Moscow outreach is the growing China-Russia strategic axis, particularly in military and technology domains. Indian officials are watching this closely, especially in light of Russia’s defence exports to China and joint exercises in the Indo-Pacific.

NSA Doval’s Moscow visit is also understood to have included a discussion on Indo-Pacific security and coordination in multilateral forums, particularly where China’s assertiveness is concerned.

India remains wary of any exclusive military convergence between Beijing and Moscow that could tilt the balance in border and regional dynamics, and is therefore keen to maintain its unique bilateral channel with Russia.

Conclusion: High-stakes diplomacy continues

Ajit Doval’s Moscow visit underscores India’s pursuit of strategic depth in its Russian ties, even as pressure mounts from Washington and beyond. With global power equations shifting and the 2026 U.S. elections approaching, India will need to carefully calibrate its diplomatic choices to maintain both its energy security and geopolitical flexibility.

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