India’s petroleum and natural gas minister Hardeep Singh Puri has projected that global crude oil prices are likely to remain stable around 65 dollars per barrel, citing the ample availability of oil in the global market. Speaking at the CII Annual Business Summit 2025 in New Delhi, the minister highlighted the factors supporting this stability in oil prices, alongside updates on domestic production and energy security efforts.

Stable Oil Prices Amid Adequate Supply

The minister remarked that the global oil supply situation remains strong, with enough production capacity to meet demand, preventing prices from rising sharply. He stated, “There are enough supplies in the market. My sense is that prices will hold. Supplies becoming available, the prices will be close to 65 dollars a barrel.”

As of press time, the July contract of Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange was priced at 63.96 dollars per barrel, about 0.3 percent lower than the previous close. This reinforces the minister’s view that the market is currently well-balanced and not likely to experience a significant price surge, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in various regions.

Strategic Reserves and Domestic Impact

Minister Puri also noted that economies with strategic reserves might take advantage of the low prices to replenish their stockpiles. This includes India, which is reportedly considering filling its strategic reserves while prices remain low.

He further hinted at the possibility of retail fuel price reductions if the current price trends continue, stating that such expectations are legitimate if low prices persist. This could offer much-needed relief to Indian consumers who are sensitive to fuel price volatility.

Boosting Domestic Exploration and Refining Capacity

The government, under Puri’s leadership, is aggressively pushing to increase domestic oil and gas production. Over 1 million square kilometres of sedimentary basins, previously marked as no-go zones, have now been opened for exploration and bidding. As a result, more than 37 percent of bids under the Open Acreage Licensing Policy (OALP) have come from these newly available areas.

India is also witnessing a strategic shift toward becoming a global refining hub. Currently, the nation’s refining capacity stands at 260 million metric tonnes per annum (mmtpa) and is projected to grow to 309.5 mmtpa by 2028. This will position India among the world’s largest oil refiners, serving both domestic demand and international markets.

Minister Puri emphasised the movement away from small teapot refineries to large, integrated refining complexes, reflecting global trends and increased efficiency in the sector.

Regulatory Reforms for Easier Business

A major policy development is the Oilfields (Regulation and Development) Amendment Act, 2025, which introduces a single permit system for exploration and production activities. This reform is aimed at streamlining bureaucratic processes, reducing delays, and encouraging private and public sector participation in oilfield development.

Such measures are critical, as India remains heavily dependent on imported crude oil. The country currently imports 5.6 million barrels per day and spent 139 billion dollars on crude oil imports in the previous year. The government’s goal is to reduce this dependence by improving domestic output and diversifying its import sources from 27 countries to 40 countries.

Sustainable Fuel Development

In line with global climate goals and India’s own commitments to clean energy transition, the minister highlighted the potential for large-scale production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). He pointed out that nations like India, Brazil, the United States, and Canada are well-positioned to become key producers of SAF.

The focus on SAF is part of a broader strategy to decarbonise transportation and enhance energy sustainability, especially in aviation, which has traditionally relied on fossil fuels and contributes significantly to global carbon emissions.

Conclusion

India’s oil policy is undergoing a comprehensive transformation. The expectation of stable crude oil prices at around 65 dollars per barrel offers a window of opportunity for the government to reform the domestic energy sector, reduce fuel prices, and strengthen strategic reserves.

Simultaneously, the government is pushing for greater domestic exploration, expanding refining capacity, and tapping into sustainable fuels like SAF. With strategic diversification and regulatory reforms, India is working towards enhancing energy security, economic resilience, and environmental sustainability, aligning with its broader vision of becoming a developed and energy-secure nation by 2047.

The Upcoming IPOs in this week and coming weeks are Ganga Bath Fittings, Victory Electric Vehicles International, Wagons Learning.

The Current active IPO are 3B Films, N R Vandana Tex Industries, Scoda Tubes, Neptune Petrochemicals.

Start your Stock Market Journey and Apply in IPO by Opening Free Demat Account in Choice Broking FinX.

Join our Trading with CA Abhay Telegram Channel for regular Stock Market Trading and Investment Calls by CA Abhay Varn - SEBI Registered Research Analyst.