Pakistan’s recent decision to forcibly deport hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees—many of whom were born and raised in the country—reveals a multifaceted strategy that blends security concerns, geopolitical posturing, and historical control tactics. This policy, which has been especially aggressive since late 2023, has now escalated, targeting even Afghan Citizenship Card (ACC) holders and prompting global human rights concerns.

Background: Why Now?

The timing of this mass deportation isn’t arbitrary. Since the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021, Pakistan’s relationship with its western neighbour has significantly deteriorated. While the Taliban had previously been seen as an ally in Pakistan’s strategic calculus, Islamabad and Rawalpindi now find themselves increasingly at odds with the regime in Kabul.

Pakistan has experienced a sharp uptick in militancy, particularly in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with terror attacks more than doubling from 517 in 2023 to 1,099 in 2024. Pakistan ranked second on the Global Terrorism Index 2025, which further intensified the security narrative justifying the expulsions.

Securitisation of Migration: Refugees Framed as Threats

Using securitisation theory, Pakistan has portrayed the presence of Afghan refugees as a direct threat to national security, linking them to Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operatives and Baloch insurgents. However, critics argue that evidence supporting these claims is thin, and the narrative functions more as a political deflection from internal instability than a reflection of reality.

This framing allows the government to justify coercive actions such as search operations, detention, and mass deportation of Afghans under the guise of protecting national sovereignty.

Neo-Colonial Control Through Migration Policy

Pakistan’s tactics also resonate with neo-colonial dynamics. The Durand Line, a colonial-era boundary that Afghanistan has never recognised, continues to be a flashpoint in bilateral ties. By pushing Afghans out, Pakistan not only reasserts its control over the border region but also validates its territorial claims.

Moreover, this forced displacement campaign seems designed to pressure international stakeholders—especially the US and Europe—to resume aid, migration resettlement, or re-engage with Islamabad on regional stability.

The Refugee Bargaining Model at Play

Pakistan’s approach aligns with the refugee bargaining model, where refugee flows are used as leverage. By creating a humanitarian crisis, Islamabad can portray itself as a victim of Afghanistan’s instability, thus reviving security cooperation talks with the US and appealing to Western allies for diplomatic and financial support.

Thousands of Afghans, including former officials, human rights workers, and Western allies, remain stranded in legal limbo, awaiting resettlement or asylum while Pakistan moves swiftly to expel them.

The Taliban’s Inflexible Response

Despite this pressure, the Taliban administration is unlikely to yield. The regime has so far refused to recognise the Durand Line, nor has it shown any intention to disengage from the TTP, with whom it shares ethnic, ideological, and familial ties.

Afghanistan’s economy, already on the brink, is now further burdened by the influx of returnees. Yet, the Taliban continue to dismiss international concerns and rely on regional supporters like China, Russia, and Iran for legitimacy.

India's Emerging Strategic Opportunity

In this evolving crisis, India finds a window for strategic engagement. With longstanding goodwill in Afghanistan, built on humanitarian aid, educational exchanges, and soft diplomacy, India could capitalise on growing anti-Pakistan sentiment in the region.

While engagement with the Taliban might be pragmatic, India must also broaden its outreach to include anti-Taliban factions, exiled political leaders, and ethnic minorities. Recent reports of internal fissures within the Taliban, including Sirajuddin Haqqani and Sher Abbas Stanekzai allegedly fleeing Afghanistan, suggest growing instability that India could diplomatically navigate.

A Humanitarian Crisis Ignored

Caught in the middle are the Afghan refugees themselves—many of whom have never seen Afghanistan, were born in Pakistan, and speak local languages. Their mass deportation raises serious human rights concerns. Reports suggest that even ACC holders, issued by the state itself, are being forcefully evicted, their homes demolished, and their families split.

Despite the general amnesty announced by the Taliban, a 2023 UN report documented the killings of hundreds of former Afghan security officials, making repatriation not just difficult but potentially deadly for many returnees.

Waning Global Attention and Support

Adding to the crisis is the shrinking international focus on Afghan refugees. The Trump-era freeze on foreign aid and suspension of the US refugee resettlement programme have left thousands in limbo. Meanwhile, global attention has shifted to conflicts elsewhere, leaving Afghan migrants largely without recourse or visibility.

Conclusion: A Crisis Rooted in Strategy, Not Compassion

Pakistan’s actions represent more than just a border control issue—they reflect a calculated geopolitical move shaped by security paranoia, historical power structures, and international bargaining. The Afghan refugee crisis, thus, is not merely a humanitarian issue but a lever for regional and global power dynamics.

At the same time, the burden of these policies falls disproportionately on vulnerable civilians, many of whom are being punished for geopolitical decisions beyond their control.

As this crisis unfolds, India, the US, and the international community must decide whether to merely observe or actively engage. Because in the high-stakes chessboard of South Asia, the lives of millions of Afghan refugees have become the pawns.

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