Pakistan’s military is facing a severe crisis in artillery ammunition reserves, with sources indicating that the armed forces have enough supplies to sustain just 96 hours of high-intensity combat. The revelation, reported by news agency ANI, has reportedly triggered significant concern within Pakistan’s military top brass. This issue was the central topic at a Special Corps Commanders Conference held on May 2, where senior officers acknowledged the gravity of the situation.

This acute shortage of ammunition directly threatens Pakistan’s military readiness and operational capability, especially amid growing hostilities with India following the April 22 Pahalgam terrorist attack.

Fallout of Arms Export Deals with Ukraine

The primary reason for this crisis, as cited by defence analysts, lies in Pakistan’s recent arms exports to Ukraine. Over the past year, Pakistan has been exporting 155mm artillery shells—a crucial asset for ground warfare—to Ukraine, capitalising on the global demand spike amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

While these deals have brought short-term financial gains, experts argue that they have depleted Pakistan’s own strategic stockpiles, leaving key systems like the M109 howitzers and BM-21 rocket launchers understocked.

A senior defence analyst told ANI, “The pursuit of short-term economic gain has inflicted a long-term strategic wound,” suggesting that Pakistan’s defence planners failed to weigh operational needs against export ambitions.

Pakistan Ordnance Factories Failing to Meet Demands

Efforts to rebuild reserves are being severely hindered by production limitations within the Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF)—the country’s primary arms and ammunition manufacturer. Sources familiar with the matter reveal that the POF is struggling due to outdated infrastructure, low automation, and poor productivity rates.

Despite official claims that the Pakistan Army’s requirements are being prioritised, insiders say the factories are unable to meet even domestic military demand, further compounding the crisis.

Economic Crisis Deepens Military Challenges

This artillery crisis comes at a time when Pakistan is grappling with a widespread economic meltdown, marked by soaring inflation, depleted foreign reserves, and unsustainable debt levels.

The economic crisis has crippled the military’s ability to fund operations, with reports indicating cutbacks on training exercises, reduced soldier rations, and cancelled war games due to fuel shortages. These financial constraints are undermining readiness and troop morale, weakening the force’s deterrence posture.

Construction of Depots Without Ammunition

As part of its contingency measures, Pakistan is building new ammunition depots near the Indian border, presumably in anticipation of conflict. However, analysts argue that these storage facilities are strategically meaningless if there’s not enough stock to fill them.

This move has been viewed as a symbolic gesture lacking real defence value, and more of a political signal than a military deterrent.

India-Pakistan Standoff Post-Pahalgam Attack

Tensions between India and Pakistan have been steadily rising since the April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam, which claimed 26 lives—mostly tourists. India has squarely blamed Pakistan-based terrorist groups for the attack and has responded with a series of aggressive diplomatic and economic measures, including:

• Suspending the Indus Waters Treaty

• Shutting down the Integrated Check Post at Attari

• Revoking all Pakistani visas and slashing diplomatic staff

• Closing Indian airspace to Pakistani carriers

In retaliation, Pakistan has banned Indian-flagged vessels from docking at its ports, mirroring India’s maritime restrictions and also suspending all imports from India.

Strategic Miscalculation and Its Fallout

The ammunition crisis illustrates what many analysts are calling a strategic blunder by Pakistan’s military and political leadership. The export of critical munitions during a period of regional instability, without sufficient backup plans for replenishment, has left the army underprepared at a critical juncture.

This raises serious concerns about Pakistan’s ability to withstand even a short-term conflict, should tensions with India escalate into direct military engagement.

Moreover, such a weakness could be exploited by non-state actors and proxy groups, emboldened by the visible cracks in Pakistan’s conventional deterrent.

International and Regional Reactions

International observers have expressed concern over the deteriorating India-Pakistan situation, given that both nations are nuclear-armed powers. With diplomatic ties fraying and military posturing intensifying, the risk of escalation is becoming increasingly real.

Western defence analysts have also raised questions about the sustainability of Pakistan’s defence export model, urging a more balanced approach that ensures domestic security is not compromised for overseas gains.

Conclusion

Pakistan's military is at a dangerous crossroads, facing a crippling shortage of artillery ammunition that severely undermines its operational readiness. This crisis has exposed serious flaws in strategic planning, production capacity, and economic foresight.

As diplomatic ties with India sour and border tensions simmer, Pakistan’s ability to defend itself is increasingly being questioned—not by its enemies, but by its own defence establishment. The country must now urgently address its defence production shortcomings, rebalance export priorities, and restore military readiness before it's too late.

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