The ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan have taken a new turn, with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif issuing a stern warning to New Delhi over the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). The decades-old treaty, signed in 1960, governs the sharing of the Indus River and its tributaries between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

India placed the treaty “in abeyance” on April 23, a day after the Pahalgam terror attack claimed the lives of 26 civilians. This marked one of the most serious escalations in bilateral relations in recent years, particularly as water rights have historically been a sensitive and high-stakes issue between the two nations.

Shehbaz Sharif’s Warning to India

In a speech delivered in Islamabad, Shehbaz Sharif declared that Pakistan would not allow India to take “even a single drop” of water that rightfully belongs to his country. He warned that any such move would be seen as an act of aggression.

“If you threaten to hold our water, then keep this in mind that you cannot snatch even one drop of Pakistan’s,” the Prime Minister said, promising a severe response if India attempted to block water flows.

His remarks underscored Islamabad’s determination to resist any Indian action perceived as undermining the treaty.

Asim Munir’s Dam Threat and Nuclear Undertones

The warning from Shehbaz Sharif was echoed, and arguably escalated, by Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Asim Munir. Addressing the Pakistani diaspora in Tampa, Florida, Munir issued a direct threat to destroy any Indian dam constructed to limit water flow into Pakistan.

He claimed that India’s actions could potentially endanger the lives of 250 million people by causing widespread water shortages and starvation.

“We will wait for India to build a dam, and when they do so, we will destroy it,” Munir said, adding, “The Indus River is not the Indians’ family property.”

The nuclear dimension of the threat, implied by Munir’s earlier remarks, has drawn global concern, with many analysts warning that water disputes could serve as a trigger for wider military conflict in South Asia.

Bilawal Bhutto’s Reaction and Cultural Significance

Former foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari strongly criticised India’s decision to suspend the IWT, calling it an attack on the Indus Valley Civilisation. He argued that Pakistan would not back down, even if it meant heading towards a larger confrontation.

For Pakistan, the Indus River system is not only an economic lifeline but also a cultural and historical treasure, making the dispute more than just a matter of resources.

India’s Operation Sindoor and Escalation

Following the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack, India launched Operation Sindoor on May 7. This military operation targeted terrorist infrastructure in both Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). The campaign involved drone and missile strikes over a period of four days, significantly raising tensions.

On May 10, both nations reached an understanding to end hostilities, but the suspension of the IWT has ensured that diplomatic relations remain fraught.

Strategic and Humanitarian Stakes

The Indus Waters Treaty has been hailed internationally as a successful example of water-sharing diplomacy, surviving even through multiple wars between India and Pakistan. However, its suspension by India has opened a dangerous chapter in the bilateral relationship.

Analysts note that any disruption to the water supply could devastate Pakistan’s agricultural economy, which heavily depends on the Indus River basin. The risk of famine, mass displacement, and economic collapse in Pakistan has been cited as a possible outcome if the dispute is not resolved.

For India, the suspension of the treaty is seen as both a punitive measure for cross-border terrorism and a strategic pressure tactic. However, experts warn that weaponising water could invite severe geopolitical backlash, including potential sanctions or intervention by global powers.

International Response and Outlook

Global stakeholders, including the United Nations and World Bank (which brokered the original treaty), have urged both countries to resume dialogue and avoid steps that could worsen the humanitarian crisis.

While Islamabad’s rhetoric has been sharp, the practicality of destroying dams or escalating to open war over water remains questionable. However, the combination of nuclear capabilities, political mistrust, and water scarcity makes the current standoff one of the most dangerous in recent memory.

Moving forward, the resolution of the IWT dispute will require diplomatic innovation, third-party mediation, and confidence-building measures. Without these, the Indus River—a symbol of life for millions—could become the epicentre of the next major South Asian conflict.

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