India’s unprecedented decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) has pushed Pakistan into urgent action mode, exposing serious vulnerabilities in Pakistan’s water security. The treaty, which was signed in 1960 and has regulated water sharing between India and Pakistan for over six decades, is now effectively on hold following the deadly Pahalgam attack carried out by a Pakistan-based terror group.

Pakistan’s Reaction: Diamer-Bhasha Dam and Water Storage

In a significant move, Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has called for accelerated construction of the long-delayed Diamer-Bhasha Dam on the Indus River. Addressing military officials at the Corps Headquarters in Peshawar, Sharif emphasized the urgent need to increase the country’s water storage capacity as a strategic response to India’s suspension of treaty obligations.

Sharif urged provincial governments to collaborate and devise actionable plans to enhance water storage despite ongoing financial challenges. The Diamer-Bhasha Dam, originally proposed in the early 1980s, has faced numerous hurdles over the years including location, environmental concerns, and cost overruns. Now, it is being prioritized as a key element of Pakistan’s water and energy future.

However, the government’s plan to reduce budget allocations for the water and energy sectors in the upcoming fiscal year amid a financial crunch complicates efforts to address these critical needs. The water sector budget is set to shrink from Rs 135 billion to Rs 109 billion, raising concerns about Pakistan’s ability to effectively ramp up water infrastructure.

India’s Position and Strategic Moves

India’s move to hold the treaty in abeyance followed the April 22 Pahalgam attack, linked to terrorist groups based in Pakistan. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a firm statement that water sharing and terrorism cannot coexist, famously saying, "Paani aur khoon ek saath nahi beh sakta" (Water and blood cannot flow together).

Under the treaty terms, India controls the waters of the eastern rivers (Sutlej, Beas, Ravi), while Pakistan receives water from the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab). Traditionally, India shared flood warnings and irrigation data with Pakistan every year, especially during monsoon months. Since April 23, India has stopped sending these warnings and data, further intensifying Pakistan’s water management challenges.

Impact on Pakistan’s Water Security and Agriculture

Pakistan is heavily dependent on the Indus River system, receiving around 80 percent of its water (135 million acre feet) from it. Approximately 93 percent of this water supports Pakistan’s agriculture, a sector crucial to its economy and food security. The suspension of data sharing and treaty cooperation has exposed Pakistan’s inability to efficiently store and manage water, raising serious concerns over its agricultural productivity and energy generation capacity.

Efforts on the Indian side to fill hydropower reservoirs frequently and flush sediment are expected to improve power generation but add pressure on Pakistan’s water availability downstream.

Conclusion

India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is a major geopolitical and water security event impacting both countries. Pakistan’s urgent push for the Diamer-Bhasha Dam and provincial cooperation on water storage highlights the deepening water crisis there. Meanwhile, India maintains a firm stance linking treaty cooperation to Pakistan’s action against terrorism.

This ongoing standoff underscores the critical intersection of water security, regional diplomacy, and national security between India and Pakistan, with implications for millions dependent on the Indus river system.

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