In a stunning and concerning revelation, Pakistan is reportedly developing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of striking the continental United States, according to the latest US intelligence assessments published by Foreign Affairs magazine. The move, believed to be prompted by fears of a future conflict with India and potential military support from Washington to New Delhi, represents a strategic escalation in South Asia’s already volatile security landscape.

The report suggests that while Pakistan has long insisted its nuclear programme is solely aimed at deterring India, the nature of its missile development indicates a paradigm shift in military doctrine. According to the July–August 2025 issue of Foreign Affairs, U.S. intelligence sources believe that the Pakistani military is secretly pursuing the development of an ICBM, a class of missile capable of delivering nuclear or conventional warheads over a range exceeding 5,500 kilometers.

This development comes against the backdrop of heightened India-Pakistan tensions, especially after India’s Operation Sindoor, which was conducted in May 2025. In that operation, Indian Armed Forces targeted terror camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir in retaliation for the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack, which left 26 people dead.

The strategic intention behind developing an ICBM, as inferred from the report, is not necessarily to use it, but to deter the United States from taking preemptive military action against Pakistan’s nuclear assets or from supporting India militarily in the event of war. This would mark a major shift from Pakistan’s traditional missile doctrine, which has focused on India-centric short and medium-range missile systems.

As it stands, Pakistan’s most advanced tested missile, the Shaheen-III, can reach targets up to 2,700 kilometres, covering much of India. However, an ICBM with a range of over 10,000 kilometres could reach North America, including Washington D.C. and New York, elevating Pakistan to the ranks of nuclear-armed states that can directly threaten the United States.

According to Foreign Affairs, if Pakistan succeeds in building such a missile, Washington will be compelled to treat Pakistan as a nuclear adversary, a classification that currently includes only countries like Russia, China, and North Korea. “No other country with ICBMs that can target the United States is considered a friend,” the report quoted intelligence sources as saying.

The U.S. government has already expressed unease with Pakistan’s long-range missile ambitions. In 2023, the United States imposed sanctions on Pakistan’s National Development Complex, the country’s main missile development agency, and three associated firms. These sanctions froze any U.S. assets held by the entities and prohibited American companies from doing business with them, citing efforts to acquire components for long-range missile systems.

Islamabad, however, rejected the sanctions as politically motivated, denying any illicit missile development activities. Officials from Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs have consistently maintained that the country’s nuclear program is India-specific and solely for national defence.

Nevertheless, analysts say that Pakistan’s growing missile ambitions may reflect a desire to gain strategic parity on a global scale, particularly as U.S.-India defence ties strengthen. In recent years, India has expanded defence collaboration with the United States, including arms deals, joint military exercises, and increased intelligence cooperation. This growing proximity may be perceived in Islamabad as a direct threat to its national security posture.

The implications of such a development are significant. First, if Pakistan completes the ICBM, it could trigger a new wave of sanctions, isolate the country diplomatically, and drive it closer to adversarial nations like China or Russia. Second, it would severely complicate the strategic calculus for the United States, which has already been working to manage North Korea’s and Iran’s missile threats.

More alarmingly, this development could spark a regional arms race, pushing other nations to upgrade their missile defences and counterforce capabilities. For India, a neighbour now potentially developing the capability to threaten the U.S. may increase pressure to accelerate its own strategic modernization, including hypersonic weapons and missile defence systems.

Adding another layer of complexity, Pakistan is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which seeks to limit the spread of nuclear weapons. With an estimated 170 nuclear warheads, Pakistan’s exclusion from global arms control regimes makes it harder to verify and manage its strategic intentions.

Pakistan’s nuclear policy has traditionally relied on the doctrine of “full-spectrum deterrence”, which includes battlefield nuclear weapons and medium-range ballistic missiles. The possible addition of an ICBM to its arsenal suggests a move towards strategic deterrence that could redefine its role not just in South Asia but in global geopolitics.

The international community is watching closely. If verified, this secret development could dramatically alter the nature of U.S.–Pakistan relations, and even impact Washington’s military planning across Asia. Given that no U.S. ally has ever been in possession of an ICBM that could strike the American mainland, Pakistan’s entry into this realm would mark it as a unique and potentially volatile nuclear power.

Furthermore, this revelation also follows multiple reports from earlier this year indicating that Pakistan was actively seeking to procure advanced missile components from international suppliers, often through third-party countries and shell companies. These procurement activities were flagged by several Western intelligence agencies, including those from Germany and the UK.

As of now, neither Pakistan’s military nor its civilian leadership has officially responded to the specific claims made in the Foreign Affairs report. However, regional defence analysts expect a strong denial in the coming days, along with possible reassurances that Pakistan’s military doctrine remains focused on regional deterrence.

In conclusion, the latest revelations that Pakistan is developing an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the United States indicate a dangerous and possibly irreversible escalation of regional tensions. What began as India-Pakistan rivalry over Kashmir and terrorism may now evolve into a global nuclear flashpoint, drawing in superpowers and raising the spectre of an arms race beyond South Asia. With India advancing its own strategic capabilities and the U.S. aligning ever closer with New Delhi, the next moves from Islamabad and Washington will be closely scrutinized by the world.

The coming months could prove pivotal as global powers must decide whether to confront, contain, or negotiate with a nuclear-armed nation expanding its reach beyond its immediate neighborhood. The stakes, as indicated by this report, are no longer just regional — they are truly global.

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