Tensions between India and Pakistan have once again risen, this time over the Indus Waters Treaty — a landmark water-sharing agreement signed in 1960 with the World Bank’s mediation. The treaty, which governs the division of water from the Indus River and its tributaries, has been in a state of suspension since May 2025, when India halted its implementation following the Pahalgam terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir.

In the latest development, Pakistan’s Foreign Office has made a public appeal urging India to resume full operation of the Indus Waters Treaty. The request comes just days after Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Asim Munir, issued an alarming nuclear strike warning, and former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari made aggressive remarks targeting India’s stance on the water-sharing pact.

The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 was designed to divide the rivers of the Indus basin equitably between the two countries. Under the agreement, the Western Rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — were allocated to Pakistan, while the Eastern Rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej — were given to India. However, India retained certain rights to use the waters of the Western Rivers for non-consumptive purposes, such as run-of-river hydropower projects, subject to strict technical limitations.

Pakistan’s latest appeal also cites a recent ruling from the Court of Arbitration, dated 8 August 2025, which provided a detailed interpretation of the treaty’s clauses. The court directed that India must “let flow” the waters of the Western Rivers for Pakistan’s unrestricted use, allowing exceptions only for hydropower generation that strictly adheres to the treaty’s criteria. The ruling also clarified the design and operational requirements for new run-of-river hydropower projects on these rivers.

The Court of Arbitration’s award was welcomed by Pakistan as a step toward ensuring the treaty’s full enforcement. Pakistan’s Foreign Office declared that the decision reinforced its long-standing concerns over India’s interpretation of certain treaty provisions. Islamabad now insists that New Delhi should immediately restore the treaty’s normal operations in compliance with this award.

However, India’s response has been unequivocal in rejecting the legal validity of the Court of Arbitration. From the very beginning, India has maintained that the tribunal’s formation violates the Indus Waters Treaty itself. According to New Delhi, the treaty clearly outlines the role of a Neutral Expert in resolving disputes and does not provide for parallel adjudication by an arbitral court unless mutually agreed upon — a step India never consented to.

Following the Pahalgam terror attack, which India blames on Pakistan-backed militants, New Delhi decided to suspend the treaty indefinitely until Islamabad “credibly and irreversibly” renounces support for cross-border terrorism. Under this suspension, India asserts it has no obligation to fulfill treaty commitments. Furthermore, it insists that no illegally constituted Court of Arbitration has the authority to question sovereign decisions taken in the interest of national security.

The Indus Waters Treaty, despite being hailed internationally as one of the most enduring agreements between India and Pakistan, has faced challenges before. Disputes over hydropower projects like Baglihar and Kishanganga have previously been taken to international forums. However, the current situation is unique, as it involves complete suspension of the treaty — a step neither side had taken before.

Experts point out that while Pakistan’s appeal signals a diplomatic approach, its simultaneous nuclear rhetoric undermines the spirit of dialogue. General Asim Munir’s remarks about Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities, alongside Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s aggressive statements, have only heightened mistrust in New Delhi. In India’s view, resuming cooperation on water-sharing cannot happen in an environment where terrorism and military threats persist.

For Pakistan, the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty poses serious challenges. The Western Rivers are vital for its agriculture, hydropower generation, and drinking water needs. Any prolonged disruption could impact crop production, energy supply, and water security, adding to the economic and environmental pressures already facing the country.

On the other hand, India has been moving ahead with plans to maximise its use of the Eastern Rivers and accelerate hydropower projects on the Western Rivers, within what it sees as its rights under the treaty. The Court of Arbitration’s ruling, however, challenges India’s broader interpretation of these rights, which New Delhi refuses to accept.

The Pahalgam terror attack, which killed multiple security personnel and civilians, marked a turning point in India’s approach. Officials in New Delhi argue that agreements like the Indus Waters Treaty rely on a baseline of trust, which has been eroded by repeated acts of terrorism. By suspending the treaty, India aims to send a clear message that terrorism has tangible consequences on bilateral cooperation.

International observers, including the World Bank, which facilitated the original treaty, have so far refrained from taking a public position on the latest developments. Analysts suggest that the suspension could have long-term geopolitical implications, especially in the context of climate change, which is expected to make water resources even more contested in South Asia.

While Islamabad’s diplomatic push may find some sympathy internationally, New Delhi’s position rests on the principle of sovereign rights and the unacceptability of third-party arbitration without its consent. The standoff over the Indus Waters Treaty is now not just a question of water-sharing, but also a test of India-Pakistan relations in an era marked by heightened security concerns and strategic rivalries.

In conclusion, the appeal by Pakistan to restore the Indus Waters Treaty comes at a time when the bilateral relationship is strained to one of its lowest points in recent years. The combination of nuclear threats, terror attacks, and international legal disputes has made the issue far more complex than a simple water-sharing disagreement. Whether the treaty can be revived in the current climate remains uncertain, but its suspension underscores how security and diplomacy are now deeply intertwined in India-Pakistan relations.

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