Pakistan’s defence alliance with Turkey, once touted as a strategic leap in naval modernization and military cooperation, is now revealing cracks that speak more of Islamabad’s financial desperation and operational dependency than strategic synergy. The high-profile MILGEM project—a joint venture to build advanced warships—has become symbolic of Pakistan’s overreach in military ambition, exposing deep economic strain, technical shortfalls, and a lack of autonomy in defence capabilities.

The project, officially valued at over a billion euros, aimed to rejuvenate Pakistan’s naval force through the construction of four MILGEM-class corvettes in partnership with Turkey’s state-owned ASFAT. But as the Pakistani rupee lost over 60% of its value since 2018, and with foreign exchange reserves consistently near depletion, even traditionally protected military expenditure has come under IMF-imposed austerity measures.

A confidential letter dated May 22, 2025, written by Pakistan’s Prime Minister to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, now accessed by media outlets, reveals the true state of affairs. The letter acknowledges Pakistan’s inability to meet financial obligations related to the MILGEM project and requests a rollover of outstanding payments by 2 to 3 years. It also warns of delays and operational compromises if fines or penalties are enforced.

Furthermore, the letter exposes an impasse in the jointly proposed MILDEN submarine program, where the 2022 MoU remains unsigned, and Turkey appears to be pursuing the project unilaterally. Despite symbolic statements of “brotherly ties,” the reality is asymmetrical. Turkey’s ASFAT controls design, core construction, and systems integration, while Pakistan’s Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works (KSEW) is mostly restricted to secondary roles and assembly, heavily reliant on Turkish technical staff.

The technology transfer promised remains largely superficial, with core electronic warfare and command systems still sourced from Turkey or Western allies. Critical platforms such as Turkey’s MIDLAS vertical launch system, key for submarine warfare, have not even been briefed to Pakistan, let alone integrated or co-developed. In essence, Pakistan has become a paying customer, not a partner in innovation.

The operational weaknesses of this lopsided partnership were made evident during Operation Sindoor in 2025, where Turkish-supplied drones failed under real combat conditions. Deployed by Pakistani forces, these UAVs struggled with low sensor clarity, poor endurance, and high vulnerability to electronic jamming. Enemy forces used AI-enabled decoys and jammers, causing severe coordination failures and forcing a tactical retreat. This incident not only raised concerns within Pakistan’s military command but also triggered internal inquiries into alternatives, including Western defence suppliers, although budget constraints remain a massive hurdle.

Pakistan’s strategic ambition, centered around high-end platforms like MILGEM, has ironically deepened its dependence on external support. Instead of fostering domestic defence capacity, it now faces multi-year delays, over-reliance on foreign maintenance, and a growing bill it cannot afford to pay.

For instance, due to mismanagement, construction of the third ship began before the second, violating basic sequence logic in shipbuilding. Commissioning delays of up to 72 months per ship have rendered the timeline meaningless. With the local workforce inadequately skilled and no technology pipeline in place, every aspect of the MILGEM project has become a case study in operational fragility.

Even high-profile deliveries are behind schedule, with internal reports suggesting that Pakistan may not be able to field a fully functional MILGEM corvette fleet before 2030. Meanwhile, Turkey continues to modernize its own navy, using proceeds from defence exports and maintaining full control over its submarine, drone, and missile development programs.

Economically, the Pakistani defence budget is now feeling the squeeze. IMF-led reforms require cuts across sectors, and defence imports have not been spared. Nearly 40% of federal revenue is spent on debt servicing, leaving little room for discretionary military spending. Even basic upgrades are being postponed.

In light of this, Pakistan’s naval dreams appear unsustainable, both financially and operationally. Debt-driven modernisation, without a self-sufficient industrial base, risks turning into a perpetual cycle of dependency. The nation’s strategic credibility is at stake, with adversaries no doubt monitoring every misstep.

Ironically, Turkey has used the same partnerships to boost its indigenous capabilities. Through co-development, licensing, and controlled exports, Ankara is building a robust defence manufacturing sector, evident in its combat drone exports, submarine platforms, and naval technologies. Pakistan, on the other hand, is still waiting for someone else to build its future.

In conclusion, Pakistan’s pacts with Turkey, far from signaling strength, are a stark reminder of its vulnerability. The MILGEM partnership, riddled with delays and payment disputes, is a microcosm of Islamabad’s defence woes—aspirational in rhetoric, but structurally dependent and economically unsustainable. Unless Pakistan revisits its approach—focusing on real capacity building, domestic innovation, and fiscal discipline—it will continue to rent military prestige without owning strategic power.

As regional dynamics shift, Pakistan must ask itself a critical question: Is it building a navy or buying a narrative?

The Upcoming IPOs in this week and coming weeks are Savy Infra, Monika Alcobev, NSDL.

The Current active IPO are Anthem Biosciences, Spunweb Nonwoven.

Start your Stock Market Journey and Apply in IPO by Opening Free Demat Account in Choice Broking FinX.

Join our Trading with CA Abhay Telegram Channel for regular Stock Market Trading and Investment Calls by CA Abhay Varn - SEBI Registered Research Analyst.