Paytm shares plunged 10% on Thursday, June 12, 2025, to hit an intraday low of ₹864.20, following market rumours surrounding a possible reintroduction of the Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) on Unified Payments Interface (UPI) transactions. The sudden crash came despite a clear denial by the Finance Ministry, which reaffirmed that no MDR had been levied on UPI transactions.
Government Clarification
The Finance Ministry swiftly dismissed the speculative reports, stating that no policy change has been made regarding MDR. The government continues to support zero MDR on UPI payments to encourage widespread digital adoption.
The clarification was meant to soothe investor concerns, but the knee-jerk reaction in Paytm’s stock price suggests that market sentiment remains fragile around regulatory uncertainties.
Technical Outlook: Bearish
Market experts and technical analysts remain cautious about Paytm’s short-term outlook.
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Kkunal V Parar, Vice-President of Technical Research at Choice Broking, said:
“The stock may slip towards ₹815–820 in the near term. If it reaches those levels, investors could consider buying, but until then, it’s best to stay away.”
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Osho Krishan, Senior Analyst at Angel One, noted:
“₹900 is a crucial neckline. A plunge below ₹880 may break the current setup, while a gap between ₹920–950 will act as a resistance barrier for any rebound.”
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A.R. Ramachandran, SEBI-registered analyst, added:
“The stock is bearish on daily charts. A close below ₹864 could bring it down further to around ₹808 in the short term.”
Technical Indicators and Chart Signals
Here’s a snapshot of Paytm’s technical picture:
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Currently trading below its 5-day and 10-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs)
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Still above its 20-, 30-, 50-, 100-, 150-, and 200-day SMAs
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The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 51.58, suggesting neutral momentum
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RSI levels:
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Above 70: Overbought
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Below 30: Oversold
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Despite some medium-term strength, the short-term momentum appears weak, increasing the risk of further downside.
Fundamental Snapshot
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Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: Negative at -74.45
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Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: 4.50
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Earnings Per Share (EPS): ₹-12.15
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Return on Equity (RoE): -6.05%
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One-Year Beta: 1.3 (high volatility)
The negative P/E and RoE indicate that Paytm remains in the red, and high beta suggests significant price swings, which may discourage risk-averse investors.
Market Context
Paytm’s crash on MDR rumours comes amid heightened regulatory scrutiny, market volatility, and profit-booking in high-beta tech stocks. While the Finance Ministry's prompt rebuttal has calmed the immediate panic, the damage to sentiment is visible.
Additionally, market observers highlight that any future clarity on payment charges or UPI monetisation policy will remain a sensitive trigger for the Paytm counter.
Analyst Recommendations
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Short-term traders should wait for ₹815–820 before considering fresh entries.
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Investors holding the stock may monitor ₹864 closely — a breach below could push prices towards ₹808.
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Upside is capped around ₹920–950, unless there’s a fundamental or sentiment-driven rebound.
Outlook
Despite the official denial of MDR implementation, Paytm's stock appears to be facing technical headwinds and investor caution. Analysts suggest the stock could remain under pressure in the near term, unless it holds above key support levels or positive news emerges.
Given volatile sentiment, weak fundamentals, and ongoing regulatory speculation, caution is advised for both short-term and long-term investors.
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