The Russia-India oil trade is back in action after experiencing a period of disruption caused by the US sanctions on Moscow’s energy sector. According to data from Kpler, India’s imports of Russian crude are set to reach 2.15 million barrels per day (bpd) in April 2025. This marks the highest level in the last two years, signaling a significant rebound since February 2025, when the trade had dropped to a 14-month low.

The surge in imports comes as the supply chains that were previously impacted by the sanctions are being rebuilt. Russian Urals crude, which is sold at discounted prices compared to other grades from West Africa and the Middle East, continues to be attractive to Indian refiners. According to Sumit Ritolia, a research analyst at Kpler, the economic advantages of Russian oil make it highly competitive for Indian refineries.

Despite the rise in imports, experts caution that the rebound in Russian refining throughput could limit export availability, potentially reducing the volume of shipments to India after May. This brings a level of uncertainty to the future of the trade.

Impact of US Sanctions on Russian Oil Trade

The US sanctions imposed on Russia earlier in the year had a severe impact on the global energy market. These sanctions were designed to limit Russia's ability to trade oil and gas, thereby reducing the country's revenues and influence in global markets. However, despite these challenges, Russia has continued to find ways to export its crude oil, and India has emerged as one of the largest buyers.

India's reliance on Russian crude oil grew after the West imposed sanctions on Russia's energy exports, and the economic conditions of the Russian crude market made it an attractive option for Indian refiners. The price discounts on Russian oil made it cost-effective for companies like Reliance Industries to import large volumes of crude.

Despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions and global oil market instability, India continues to push ahead with its import strategy, proving resilient in the face of sanctions and trade disruptions.

Reliance Industries at the Heart of the Surge in Shipments

A significant portion of the Russian crude being imported into India is heading for Reliance Industries' Jamnagar refinery, which operates the world's largest oil refining complex. The refinery is receiving more than a dozen cargoes of Russian crude in April 2025, and while Reliance has not commented on the exact volumes, the data from Kpler shows a clear upward trajectory in shipments.

Reliance Industries, under the leadership of Mukesh Ambani, is one of the largest players in the Indian oil market. The company’s refining capacity allows it to process large quantities of crude oil, making it an essential part of the growing energy trade between India and Russia. As the largest crude importer in India, Reliance's refinery complex in Gujarat continues to be a critical node for Russian oil imports.

Future Outlook for Russia-India Oil Trade

Looking ahead, while the near-term future appears positive for the Russia-India oil trade, there are concerns about the longer-term implications. If Russian refining throughput increases significantly over the coming months, it could reduce the amount of crude available for export, potentially causing a slowdown in shipments to India after May 2025.

At the same time, the geopolitical landscape remains volatile, with Russia continuing to seek alternative markets for its oil exports. India’s strategic position as a key importer of Russian crude gives it a significant role in shaping the future of global oil trade.

In conclusion, the Russian oil trade to India is once again on the rise, driven by discounted prices and a favorable market environment. The trade is expected to remain robust for the foreseeable future, though factors such as increased refining activity in Russia and potential future sanctions could introduce volatility.

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