Telecom Revenue Soars to $28.7 Billion in FY24 Amidst Jio and Airtel Dominance

Team Finance Saathi

    21/Jun/2024

Key Points:

  1. Telecom sector revenue surged to $28.7 billion in FY24, an 87% increase from the low point of FY19.
  2. Jio and Airtel control 78% of the market, projected to rise to 83% by FY26.
  3. Vodafone Idea's market share drops as it struggles with lower 5G spectrum holdings and delayed rollout.

The telecom sector in India experienced a significant upsurge in revenue for the fiscal year 2024 (FY24), reaching a substantial $28.7 billion (Rs. 2,39,900 crore). This marks an impressive 87% increase from the sector's lowest point in FY19, shortly after the market entry of Reliance Jio. The revenue figure is also approximately 40% higher than the historical highs seen in FY16, before Jio commenced its commercial operations. According to CLSA, this remarkable growth underscores the dynamic changes and competitive shifts within the industry over the past few years.

Dominance of Jio and Airtel

Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel have continued to consolidate their positions as the leading players in the Indian telecom market. Together, these two telecom giants command 78% of the sectoral revenue, a figure that is projected to climb to 83% by FY26. Their aggressive strategies in expanding subscriber bases and enhancing service offerings have significantly impacted their market shares.

Market Performance Breakdown

In FY24, Reliance Jio saw its revenue increase by 10% year-on-year to $11.86 billion (Rs. 99,200 crore), securing a revenue market share (RMS) of 41.4%. Bharti Airtel, on the other hand, recorded a 12% revenue growth, bringing its total to $10.61 billion (Rs. 88,700 crore) and achieving an RMS of 37%. In stark contrast, Vodafone Idea struggled, with its RMS declining by 130 basis points to 15.7%. Its revenue remained stagnant at $4.51 billion (Rs. 37,700 crore).

Vodafone Idea's Challenges

Vodafone Idea’s challenges are multifaceted. One of the key issues is its lower 5G spectrum holdings and the delayed rollout of its 5G services. This has placed the company at a disadvantage compared to its competitors, Jio and Airtel, who have been more proactive in their 5G deployments. CLSA notes that these delays and limitations could lead to further market share consolidation by Jio and Airtel at the expense of Vodafone Idea.

Subscriber Dynamics

The active subscriber base for the industry saw a slight decline in April, decreasing by 0.1 million. This is a notable shift after an average monthly growth of 1.8 million over the previous six months. During this period, Jio managed to add 3 million new users, whereas Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea lost 2.1 million and 0.6 million active users, respectively.

Mobile Broadband Growth

Despite the overall slowdown in active subscriber growth, the number of mobile broadband users rose by 3.8 million to reach 887 million. This 1.8% year-on-year growth highlights the increasing demand for mobile internet services. Jio continued to dominate in this area, with its mobile broadband base expanding by 2.7 million to 472 million users. Bharti Airtel followed, adding 2.1 million users to its total of 268 million. In contrast, Vodafone Idea experienced a significant setback, losing 1.3 million wireless broadband subscribers in April alone. This decline, the largest in a year, is attributed to delays in its 5G rollout.

Investment and Infrastructure

JM Financial emphasizes that for Vodafone Idea to reverse its declining trend, it needs to significantly boost its capital expenditure. Enhancing its 4G coverage and driving mobile broadband upgrades are critical steps. Additionally, improving its subscription base will require substantial investment in network infrastructure.

Fixed-line Broadband Growth

The fixed-line broadband segment also showed positive growth, with the user base increasing by 0.65 million in April to a total of 40.7 million. Reliance Jio led this growth by adding 0.35 million users, driven largely by the adoption of Fixed Wireless Access subscribers.

Conclusion

The telecom sector in India is undergoing a transformative phase, with Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel leading the charge. Their strategic advancements in subscriber acquisition and service enhancement have significantly bolstered their market positions. Meanwhile, Vodafone Idea faces considerable hurdles, primarily due to its delayed 5G rollout and insufficient spectrum holdings. As the industry moves forward, the emphasis on expanding network capabilities and subscriber bases will be crucial for sustaining growth and competitiveness.

The ongoing competition and investment in infrastructure are likely to further shape the landscape of the Indian telecom sector. As Jio and Airtel continue to innovate and expand, the market is poised for continued growth, presenting both challenges and opportunities for all players involved.

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